Successful outcome of a likely meeting between Xi and Biden would set a positive tone for China-US relations, experts say
(LI MIN / CHINA DAILY)
Asuccessful outcome of a meeting between the top leaders of China and the United States would set a positive tone and agenda for the countries’ relations, experts said.
Observers interviewed by China Daily are expressing hopes for a meeting between Chinese President Xi Jinping and US President Joe Biden on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) leaders’ meeting.
Kenneth Quinn, president emeritus of the World Food Prize Foundation and a former US Foreign Service officer, said, “I believe that there is extreme urgency for a Biden-Xi summit to take dramatic and impactful action to turn the US-China relationship in a more positive direction.”
Quinn said a bilateral meeting at heads-of-state level could enhance and stabilize the relationship, which only recently had shown signs of emerging from its lowest level in decades.
Once the US presidential election cycle — which usually features rhetoric attacking China — starts in January, there will likely be no further opportunities for any significant or even small steps by Washington, Quinn added.
The San Francisco skyline is seen behind the Golden Gate Bridge. (PHOTO / AP)
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi’s three-day visit to Washington late last month, which many in the US viewed as one of the last chances to lay the groundwork for a Biden-Xi meeting, was a reciprocal visit after US Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s trip to China in June.
Both sides agreed to work together to arrange a meeting between the two presidents in San Francisco, but Wang cautioned that the road to such a summit would not be smooth.
A White House official said, “We are planning for a constructive meeting between the leaders, but are still working together to put those plans in place.”
A face-to-face meeting would be the first between the leaders of the two largest economies since they met in Bali, Indonesia, a year ago.
As relations frayed in the months that followed, Beijing urged Washington to take action to implement the important consensus reached by Xi and Biden.
Stephen Roach, senior fellow at the Paul Tsai China Center at Yale University, wrote on Oct 26 that another Xi-Biden summit could be a “sorely needed” second chance, and it must be “scripted for success”.
“It definitely feels as if both presidents are better prepared for San Francisco than they were for Bali,” Roach said. “However, while preparation is necessary, it is not sufficient for a successful summit.” He was referring to the increased bilateral high-level engagement in recent months.
A cable car makes its way down California Street in San Francisco. (PHOTO / AP)
Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer led a bipartisan US Senate delegation to China last month, the first visit to the country by US lawmakers since 2019.
Xi told Schumer that competition and confrontation are not consistent with the trend of the times, and still less can solve problems and address challenges facing the world.
Before Schumer’s visit, four top Biden administration officials had traveled to China since June: Blinken, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo and climate envoy John Kerry.
Outlining Washington’s approach to US-China relations, Yellen said the US seeks to work with China on global challenges ranging from climate change to debt distress. It does not seek to decouple from China, but is “de-risking” to avoid compromising on areas such as national security.
Yellen’s trip to China in July resulted in the first meeting of the China-US Economic Working Group, which was held late last month.
“We know the US-China relationship is among the most consequential in the world. We need to get it right,” Yellen said on Nov 2.
Roach said that for the expected summit to be successful, the focus should be less on sloganeering — like last year’s putting a “floor” beneath relations or this year’s “de-risking” — and more on clear and achievable objectives, such as reopening closed consulates and enhancing people-to-people exchanges.
It is then necessary for China and the US to underscore a shared recognition of two threats facing both countries — climate change and global health — and work out an institutionalized model of engagement that provides a permanent, robust framework for continuous troubleshooting and problem-solving, Roach added.
Bicyclists make their way along Chinatown’s Grant Avenue in San Francisco. (PHOTO / AP)
Gary Hufbauer, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, a think tank in Washington, said that if the San Francisco meeting takes place, it should set a positive tone for relations.
The urgency of the expected summit partly stems from the Ukraine conflict and the Israel-Palestinian conflict, he said, adding, “Either one could spark a larger war, which neither China nor the US wants.”
Other experts, expressing cautious optimism about the outcome of the potential meeting, listed the “minimum” outcomes expected.
Scott Kennedy, senior adviser and trustee chair in Chinese business and economics at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, described the state of China-US relations as “fragile stability”.
While it is unlikely that the two nations will return to a honeymoon period mainly centered on cooperation, he said there is a possibility that they could achieve steady “competition without conflict”.
“This would require each side to recognize that outright conflict must remain off the table and take steps to make initiation of conflict more difficult, and that there are a variety of areas in which cooperation is still highly valuable,” Kennedy said.
Signage along the street promotes the upcoming Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation leaders summit in San Francisco, California. (PHOTO / AP)
He hoped that “at a minimum”, steps will be taken to renormalize people-to-people connections, including more direct flights, simplified visa procedures for travelers, more visas for journalists, and that the Chinese consulate in Houston and the US consulate in Chengdu, Sichuan province, will be reopened. Both consulates were closed in 2020.
For Robert Zoellick, former US trade representative and president of the World Bank, a Biden-Xi summit would be a “good and timely step” for bilateral relations, which have spiraled downward in the past year.
“Both countries should want to avoid risks of miscalculations or accidents that could escalate. So I hope the two militaries will resume a dialogue, and especially crisis communications,” he said.
Zoellick, whose 2020 book, America in the World: A History of US Diplomacy and Foreign Policy, identifies traditions that have emerged from the US’ global encounters, said China prefers formulating principles to guide actions on individual issues, while the US tends to begin with practical problem-solving, which it also sees as a way to build confidence.
“Perhaps this meeting might seek to find a blend of principles and actions. At a minimum, the two leaders can listen closely to the perspectives, interests and constraints on one another,” he said.
A cyclist passes Moscone Center West in San Francisco. The center will be a primary venue of the upcoming Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation leaders’ summit.(PHOTO / AP)
China and the US might also explore a cooperative agenda with multilateral financial institutions, especially the International Monetary Fund and World Bank, where they can work with others to help the poorest countries grow and become more resilient, Zoellick said.
“Some developing countries will need help with debt restructuring, and even forgiveness. The AIIB (Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank) can cooperate with the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank on infrastructure,” he added.
Zoellick said he expected the leaders to also discuss the COP28 climate summit, due to be held in Dubai late this month, and for which US-Chinese cooperation “has to be the cornerstone” of global action.
Kerry, the US climate envoy, and his Chinese counterpart Xie Zhenhua held talks from Nov 4 to Nov 7 at the Sunnylands desert resort in California, also the venue for Xi’s first US summit in June 2013.
At that summit, Xi and then-US president Barack Obama agreed to build a relationship that would avoid the “Thucydides Trap” — conflict between a rising power and an established one.
In his discussions with Schumer on Oct 9, Xi revisited that theme, saying that the Thucydides Trap is not inevitable, and the Earth is vast enough to accommodate the respective development and common prosperity of China and the US.
The perspectives on the Thucydides Trap is a testimony of the consistency of the country’s policy on China-US relations.
