Prospects dim for negotiated solution between Moscow, Kyiv, analysts say

Residents attend a memorial event on Feb 24, 2024 under a damaged bridge in Irpin, northwest Kyiv, Ukraine, to mark the second anniversary of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Both countries remain committed to advancing military operations, showing no signs of initiating peace talks. (PHOTO / AFP)

Editor’s note: As the Russia-Ukraine conflict marked its second anniversary on Feb 24, China Daily takes a look at gains and losses from the conflict as well as the possibility for peace, which has remained elusive so far.

As the full-scale fight in Ukraine reached its second anniversary on Feb 24, Russia appears to have the upper hand with the capture of Avdiivka, a strategic stronghold in the Donetsk region, leaving Kyiv and its backers in an even harder situation than before.

The weariness caused by the two-year-long conflict has been dubbed by some analysts as “Ukraine fatigue”.

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In recent months, Russia and Ukraine have both focused on the strategic importance of Avdiivka, about 20 kilometers from Donetsk. According to Russia’s Defense Ministry, Russian troops have taken full control of Avdiivka.

Sean Bell, a British military analyst, said the fall of Avdiivka has given Russia its most important battlefield victory since it seized Bakhmut after months of grueling attritional warfare.

Many analysts believe the balance of war is tipping in Russia’s favor but not to the point where Ukraine is at risk of a full-scale collapse.

The front lines of the conflict have barely moved since 2023 as Ukraine’s midyear offensive failed. This also holds true even after the fall of Avdiivka.

“Militarily, it’s not a big loss,” said Rob Bauer, chair of the NATO Military Committee, speaking about the fall of Avdiivka.

“They destroyed the whole infrastructure. So, you don’t have a city. You have another couple of hundred meters,” he said of Russia’s territorial gains.

As the former commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Valerii Zaluzhnyi, said recently, the Russia-Ukraine conflict has now entered a phase characterized by stalemate and attrition.

According to analysts, it is seemingly difficult for both sides to achieve a major breakthrough on the battlefield this year, but the intensity of the conflict may decline.

Ukraine will probably switch from offensive to defensive, while Russia will also find it hard to expand its territory beyond the four areas it controls.

In the two years of the conflict, the US defense industry has experienced a boom in orders for weapons and munitions, The Wall Street Journal reported recently.

Business is coming from European allies trying to beef up their military capabilities as well as from the Pentagon, which is both buying new equipment from defense manufacturers and replenishing military stocks depleted by deliveries to Ukraine, the report noted.

The year 2023 started with high hopes for Ukrainian troops planning a counteroffensive against Russia, but ended with disappointment on the battlefield.

“Whatever else the war may be achieving, it has not been good for Ukraine,” said Charles W. Freeman, a retired US diplomat and writer, adding that Ukraine’s bargaining position against Russia has been greatly weakened.

Both Russia and Ukraine have repeatedly said they want the conflict to end, but on their terms.

In January, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky warned that a cease-fire then would only give Russia a chance to regroup and replenish its units and weapon stocks.

The Kremlin said in December that it saw no current basis for peace talks, and called Kyiv’s peace plan an “absurd process” as it excluded Russia.

For most analysts, a negotiated solution in 2024 does not look promising at this point.

A survey conducted in January across 12 EU countries found that pessimism about the conflict’s outcome was being fueled by Ukraine’s failed counteroffensive and a potential policy shift in Washington amid the possibility of Donald Trump being reelected US president.

Though support for Ukraine among Europeans remains high, some form of “compromise settlement” is seen as the most likely solution in the survey of more than 17,000 respondents by the European Council on Foreign Relations. It marks a shift in sentiment, as a majority of Europeans said previously, upon the first anniversary of the conflict last year, that Ukraine must regain all of its lost territory.

The European Union, meanwhile, is struggling to sustain its support for Kyiv amid gloomy news from the battleground, public fatigue, the Republican Congress’ blocking of US aid, and the possible win of Trump in the November US presidential election.

At a campaign rally in South Carolina on Feb 10, Trump said he would encourage Russia to do “whatever the hell they want” to any NATO member that does not meet the spending criteria on defense. His remarks revived European memories of the tense trans-Atlantic relationship when Trump was in office.

Carl Bildt, co-chair of the European Council on Foreign Relations and former Swedish prime minister, said that everyone in Europe is deeply worried about Trump.

“If he is elected, who knows what might happen,” Bildt said on CNN program Fareed Zakaria GPS.

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While most Western leaders have vowed, at least rhetorically, to continue to support Ukraine in the fight against Russia, some have also implied the need for a negotiated settlement, a taboo in the EU for the last two years.

Acting Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte, who is the favorite candidate to take over as the next NATO secretary-general, said at the Munich Security Conference (MSC) last month that only Kyiv can trigger peace negotiations with Moscow.

In Washington, while the Senate passed a foreign aid package which includes $61 billion for Ukraine, House Speaker Mike Johnson said his chamber will not be “rushed” to pass the measure.

Asked about Ukraine aid, Nebraska Senator Pete Ricketts said at the MSC that the United States’ southern border is now the top concern for people in the US.

Ian Bremmer, president of political risk research and consulting firm Eurasia Group, said in his podcast that the Russia-Ukraine conflict “is not going very well, certainly not from the perspective of those attending the security conference”, referring to Western leaders at the MSC.

“Ukraine is nowhere close to the level of prioritization these days,” he said of the public fatigue regarding Ukraine.

European media, which have been pro-Ukraine, have also started to cover the other side of the story, such as “mission impossible” for Ukraine to defeat a nuclear Russia, and the fatigue in both Ukraine and Europe over the prolonged conflict.

The 2024 Munich Security Index showed that Russia was perceived as the No 7 threat in Germany this year, compared to No 1 last year. Even in all G7 countries, the threat posed by Russia as the top concern as indicated in 2022 and 2023 has slipped to fourth place this year.

Yan Shaohua, an associate professor with the Institute of International Studies at Fudan University in Shanghai, was skeptical about the EU’s new 50 billion euro ($54 billion) aid package agreed in February changing the situation for Ukraine. The aid was on top of the 88 billion euros already spent since the conflict broke out in February 2022.

Yan added that the rise of right-wing populism in Europe will pose further challenges to future support for Ukraine.

Chen Weihua in Brussels and Xinhua News Agency contributed to this report.