US poll shows public could stay away if action resumed without vaccine

In this file photo a general view of American Family Fields stadium, spring training home of the Milwaukee Brewers, following Major League Baseball's decision to suspend all spring training games on March 12, 2020 in Phoenix, Arizona. (RALPH FRESO / GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA / AFP)

With the distinct possibility of pro sports resuming in empty venues, a recent poll suggests a majority of US fans wouldn't feel safe attending games anyway without a COVID-19 vaccine.

According to the Seton Hall Sports Poll, 72 percent of Americans said they would not feel safe attending games without a vaccine, though the number dropped to 61 percent among people who identified themselves as sports fans. Nearly half the respondents in the poll, which had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.6 percentage points, said they either didn't follow sports closely or didn't follow sports at all.

ALSO READ: Colombia says football unlikely to resume before July

I can't imagine that the sports consumers, or you might call them the committed fans or the hardcore fans, they're not going to stay away for a year

David Carter, Professor, Southern California

So even if fans are allowed back in venues, many may not come. And the financial losses in such a scenario will be significant without the revenue that comes from tickets, concessions and merchandise, among other things - even if money is flowing from lucrative media rights deals.

If the NBA and NHL cancel the rest of their seasons and Major League Baseball and Major League Soccer play only half their regular schedules, the losses in fan-related revenue could reach US$3 billion, according to Patrick Rishe, director of the sports business program at Washington University in St Louis.

"Those losses that I mentioned, both in ticket revenue and game day-related spending at the venues on food, beverage, parking, merchandise, you name it, that's money that's gone," Rishe said. "Even if money on tickets is credited to next season, it's still an opportunity lost. So it's pretty sizable."

David Carter, a professor in the sports business school at Southern California, said there is a difference between a sports fan and a sports consumer. The latter is more likely to return whenever fans are allowed into venues.

"I can't imagine that the sports consumers, or you might call them the committed fans or the hardcore fans, they're not going to stay away for a year," Carter said. "They're champing at the bit right now."

Damian Lillard of the Portland Trailblazers scores under pressure from JaVale McGee and Danny Green of the Los Angeles Lakers on Jan 31, 2020 during their NBA game in Los Angeles. (FREDERIC J. BROWN / AFP)

Baseball's TV deal averages about US$1.5 billion annually and runs through next year, and the NBA is roughly halfway through a nine-year deal that pays about US$2.6 billion each year. The NHL's rights deal is just US$2 billion total for 10 years - an average of US$200 million per season.

Carter wondered if owners and league officials are weighing TV money that comes with resuming play against the lost revenue of empty stadiums and arenas.

"Right now, are the media dollars at permanent risk or are they just at risk of being deferred?" Carter asked. "And I would argue that because these teams and leagues are working with their media partners as that, as partners, it's more likely that they'll come up with a workaround that might not be ideal, but might be better than the optics of having to move forward with fans in the building and protecting the turnstile revenue that they would have otherwise made."

College football is facing its own set of questions, including whether students will be allowed back on campuses and when. The sport is critical to nearly all athletic department budgets and officials are bracing for significant dips in revenue even if games are played.

"If public health officials say it's safe to return large events, I don't think it's realistic that everybody is going to feel good about coming to games," Baylor athletic director Mack Rhoades said. "And then, because of the economy, people are going to be impacted and not everybody is going to be able to afford a ticket."

READ MORE: E-sports pull in more viewers as virus halts live sports matches

Among other findings in the poll, most fans thought US pro sports leagues acted at the right time to suspend their seasons. The vast majority also agreed that the International Olympic Committee didn't move too quickly in postponing the Tokyo Games until 2021.

About 70 percent of respondents said the NFL shouldn't start in the fall, even with social distancing. And 76 percent said they would have the same interest in watching live sports on TV even if fans are not in the stands.