Western narratives about an imminent “China crash” have run amok of late. This collective hysteria culminated in US President Joe Biden calling China a “ticking time bomb” last month, citing the economic challenges the country faces.
As any veteran international observer can easily realize, the “China collapse” hype has popped up every now and then. It can be traced back to as early as 2001, when Gordon Chang, a Chinese American lawyer, published his much-hyped book The Coming Collapse of China, predicting the country’s collapse by 2011. All Chang’s subsequently revised predictions, as well as many other similar “China doom” predictions by other Western experts, have all collapsed, along with their reputations. It turns out that China and its economy have been alive and kicking for most of the time over the past few decades and became the second-largest economy in the world, though challenges abounded, exhibiting the country’s resilience.
The collapses of those “China doom” predictions are conceivable, or, shall we say, predictable. They were not based on grounded observations but were driven by ideological or political bias; or worse, they served the malicious intention of undermining China’s socioeconomic development by impairing global investors’ and businesses’ confidence in the country’s future.
While it is true that China’s economy is facing difficulties and challenges, the country’s economic situation and prospects are far less gloomy than what those Western experts and commentators have forecast based on fragmented data they singled out to support their points.
Shortly after Biden made the “ticking time bomb” comment, the National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS) released economic data for July in mid-August, some of which fell short of market expectations. A new chorus of voices talking down China’s economy emerged immediately, with some Western media outlets sensationalizing the year-on-year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods, which hit a new low of 2.5 percent for the year, as well as the rise in the unemployment rate. However, the data for August released by the NBS in September showed signs of improvement in national economic performance. The year-on-year growth of total retail sales of consumer goods rebounded strongly to 4.6 percent, and the nationwide urban unemployment rate declined to 5.2 percent from 5.3 percent in the previous month. It is evident that the series of policy measures taken by the government to expand domestic demand, boost consumer and business confidence, and prevent various risks have produced positive results, indicating an improving economic outlook. Those arguments for a “China crash”, which are based on cherry-picked data or wishful thinking, clearly do not stand up to scrutiny.
In August, international rating agency Fitch downgraded the credit rating of the United States, reflecting the worsening fiscal situation and serious deficiencies in fiscal management capabilities of the US government. As the next US presidential election draws near, it is not surprising that the Biden administration seeks to distract the American people’s attention from domestic problems to external issues. This could have explained Biden’s weird “China doom” comment made in the capacity of a president, as well as those similar comments floated by Western mainstream media.
In fact, ever since the Trump administration designated China as the US’ chief strategic rival, Western mainstream media have been playing the sidekick in Washington’s China-bashing game, which includes the Chinese economy as a key target. Prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, they repeatedly predicted runaway inflation or a potential economic hard landing, citing that China’s economic growth was too fast to sustain. After the pandemic struck, as China’s economic growth slowed down, they diligently underscored the difficulties, challenges and obstacles China was facing in its journey to recovery.
Perhaps no narrative is more far-fetched than the one suggesting that China’s economy is going the way of Japan’s “lost 30 years”. China differs from Japan in many ways. First and foremost, Japan was coerced by the US-led “big four” (the US, the UK, Germany and France) in 1985 to sign the Plaza Accord, which led to a significant appreciation of the Japanese yen against the US dollar and a subsequent decline in the competitiveness of Japanese exports. No country can coerce China in the same way, as has been proved by the failure of the US’ trade and technology wars against China. Furthermore, China has a huge domestic market, possesses complete industrial chains, and is capable of sustaining technological innovation, enabling it to maintain global competitiveness. There is no way the US can effectively strike down China’s external trade, and China will not become the next Japan in any way, as Western mainstream media foresee.
Such propaganda campaigns against China conducted in lockstep by the US political establishment and the Western mainstream media under its influence are a less sophisticated game that any seasoned observer can easily see through. Yet some people, including some commentators, in Hong Kong seem to buy into such “China doom” narratives.
It is natural and logical that Hong Kong residents care about the performance of the Chinese mainland economy as well as its prospects. But we should objectively analyze all economic data when making assessments or commenting on the country’s economic situation and performance, lest we fall into the trap of the West’s “China crash” narrative.
The Belt and Road Initiative, initiated by President Xi Jinping in 2013, has helped the country strengthen its economic and trade ties with other countries, promoting shared development with participating countries. The US’ attempt to isolate China is unlikely to succeed.
Ivan Chu is a member of the Chinese Association of Hong Kong and Macao Studies.
Edward Wong is a researcher of Hong Kong Sustainable Development Research Institute.
The views do not necessarily reflect those of China Daily.
