War between nuclear powers would be horrific beyond measure for the entire world

(LI MIN / CHINA DAILY)

Despite simmering tensions, China and the United States must strengthen dialogues and ties. Collaboration in mutual interests can breed stability, whereas decoupling risks calamity.

Data show that China-US economic bonds remain sturdy and symbiotic. Since establishing diplomatic ties in 1979, total trade between the two countries has grown from $2 billion to over $643.8 billion in 2022. China-US two-way equity and bond holdings at the end of 2020 stood at $3.3 trillion. 

This complex relationship underpins numerous sectors and millions of livelihoods. In 2019, exports to China supported 1.2 million jobs in the US and as of 2018, 197,000 people in the US were directly employed by Chinese multinational firms, according to the US-China Business Council.

US companies prosper by tapping into China’s vast market and manufacturing might. Take Starbucks for example. In 2022 alone, the coffee chain opened 724 new shops on the Chinese mainland, increasing its total number of stores to well over 6,000. Even amid political tensions, US investment in China increased by 9 percent year-on-year in 2022.

These numbers show how deeply the economies of the two countries rely on each other, but it also means that disruptions could wreak havoc. A Rhodium Group study found that if the US were to impose 25 percent tariffs on all goods traded with China, the US would lose $190 billion in annual GDP by 2025. In the US aviation industry alone, a complete loss of access to China’s market for US aircraft and commercial aviation services could create US output losses ranging from $38 billion to $51 billion annually, with cumulative impacts adding up to $875 billion by 2038.

US trade actions have already hurt its own consumers. The Donald Trump-era tariffs on Chinese imports raised costs for US manufacturers and consumers and led to retaliatory duties on US exports. A study conducted by Trade Partnership Worldwide found that if a 25 percent tariff were imposed on all Chinese imports, the average US family of four would pay up to $2,300 more per year for goods and services. This was particularly damning at a time when US inflation is at its highest level. Pursuing further trade decoupling, via expanded tariffs or restrictions, would only deepen the economic wounds.

Technologically, bifurcation is mutually disastrous. Severing collaborative veins in science and technology not only threatens economies but also human progress itself. China supplies the most foreign talent nourishing US graduate programs in cutting-edge fields. Meanwhile, US tech giants, such as Apple, which reaped $74 billion from China in 2022, are inextricably tied to Chinese ecosystems and markets. Compartmentalizing research frontiers such as artificial intelligence, robotics, and biotech imperils breakthroughs that uplift humanity.

The lessons are clear — from scholars sharing insights on quantum physics to astronauts partnering in space, we go further together. The shared destiny of the two countries demands they reject fatal zero-sum thinking that sacrifices advancement on the altar of insular mistrust. By cooperating, they honor not just mutual interests but the human yearning to learn and explore.

When it comes to security issues, China and the US must resist the temptation of brinkmanship. Both nations possess substantial nuclear arsenals, meaning any military conflict runs the risk of rapid escalation to the nuclear level. Even a nonnuclear war conducted with today’s conventional weapons could result in catastrophic damage and loss of life on both sides. 

Neither side should forget that war between nuclear powers is unwinnable — the consequences would be horrific beyond measure for the entire world. Statesmanship and pragmatism are essential to safeguarding prosperity and human progress.

Equally, global challenges such as climate change demand China-US coordination. Both China and the US are global leaders in renewable energy development, investments, and deployments. In particular, China’s efforts to expand its solar and wind power capacities will contribute in large part to an expected one-third growth in global renewable energy capacity in 2023. With the two nations generating nearly 40 percent of all greenhouse gas emissions, hopes of restricting global warming hinge on the urgent alignment of China-US policies. Neither can tackle such transnational threats alone.

As the ancient Chinese proverb goes, “one ant hole may cause the collapse of a mighty dyke”. Similarly, the fissures in China-US relations could cause catastrophic results if left unaddressed. Tensions are reaching dangerous levels across trade, technology, and security. Yet both countries remain bound by mutual interest in prosperity and stability. Blindly decoupling courts calamity — sundering the world economy’s most vital arteries, crashing markets, and breeding mistrust and miscalculation between two nuclear superpowers. Wisdom lies in carefully identifying strategic areas for cooperation to shore up the foundations.

Success begins with modest, pragmatic steps. Only by relearning habits of dialogue and trust can we inch away from the brink and build a common future. The hour is late but opportunity remains for us to converge in defense of humanity’s future. Progress depends on expanding our moral imaginations beyond suspicion and zero-sum thinking toward empathy, foresight, and care. We face a stark choice — sleepwalk into catastrophe or, in Abraham Lincoln’s words, summon the better angels of our nature. The future beckons great powers to choose peace.

The author is an associate professor of Hunan University’s School of Public Policy. The author contributed this article to China Watch, a think tank powered by China Daily. 

The views do not necessarily reflect those of China Daily.