Published: 17:12, January 31, 2025
Stocks tread with caution, dollar firms as tariff threat lingers
By Reuters

SINGAPORE - Global shares drifted on Friday as investors reflected on relatively strong earnings from tech bellwethers.

Fresh threats from US President Donald Trump of tariffs on Mexico and Canada lifted the dollar and pushed gold prices to record high as traders brace for the Saturday deadline set by Trump to impose 25 percent tariffs.

Nasdaq futures rose 0.58 percent after Apple executives forecast relatively strong sales growth. European futures pointed to a muted open after Europe's benchmark index closed at a record high the previous day.

The pan-European STOXX 600 is on course for an over 6 percent gain in January, its strongest monthly performance since November 2023.

Technology stocks across the globe stumbled badly on Monday, with shares of high-profile tech names such as Nvidia and Oracle getting pummelled.

But tech stocks have since recouped some of those losses, CEOs of Microsoft and Meta defended their massive spending, saying it was crucial to staying competitive in the new field.

Vasu Menon, managing director of investment strategy at OCBC, said the DeepSeek development may create some uncertainty and put some pressure on valuations of AI players in the short term, but it does not alter the medium to long term outlook.

"The need for increased AI infrastructure will continue and any new computing capacity should get absorbed by increased AI demand which could grow significantly in the coming years.

With markets in China still closed for the Spring Festival, the return of South Korea grabbed the spotlight in Asia.

The benchmark KOSPI slid over 1 percent, with shares of Samsung Electronics, which projected limited first quarter earnings growth on Friday, down 3 percent, and SK Hynix, a key supplier to Nvidia, 9.5 percent lower.

That left the MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan down 0.2 percent but still on course for a 1 percent gain this month, snapping its three month losing streak.

Tariff threat

Investors were also weighing central bank actions this week in which the Federal Reserve held rates steady on Wednesday, in line with expectations, while the European Central Bank cut interest rates on Thursday as expected.

"The (Fed) meeting reinforced our belief the Fed is content to sit on the sidelines, in no hurry to move until the future is clearer," said Susan Hill, head of government liquidity at Federated Hermes.

"We still think the Fed will cut rates this year and have pencilled in a 25 basis-point cut by mid-2025 and another coming around autumn."

Data on Thursday showed US economic growth slowed in the fourth quarter, but remained robust enough for investors to expect the Fed to lower rates only gradually this year.

Investor focus will now switch to the December US personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index report, Fed's favored gauge of inflation, due later in the day.

Trump's policies remain a risk for the Fed's policy outlook, and Saturday is likely to see new tariffs slapped on Canada and Mexico. The Mexican peso and Canadian dollar remained on guard ahead of the deadline.

In Japan, the yen was last at 154.58 per dollar, having already climbed more than 1 percent for the week thus far. It was set to gain 1.9 percent for the month, which would mark its best January performance in seven years.

Expectations of further rate increases from the BOJ this year has boosted the yen. Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino said on Thursday that the central bank will continue to raise rates if the economy and prices move in line with the bank's forecasts.

In commodities, gold rose to $2,799.71 an ounce to hit record levels, and was on course for a 6.5 percent rise in January, its strongest monthly performance since March.

Brent crude futures was 0.4 percent higher at $77.21 a barrel. US crude futures rose 0.8 percent to $73.31 a barrel.