Published: 17:47, February 7, 2025
Constructive dialogue can help prevent trade war
By Tom Fowdy

It should be of little surprise to anyone to learn that US President Donald Trump has initiated a new trade war against China. After backing down on tariffs against Canada and Mexico, he predictably pursued China again and implemented a 10 percent tariff on all imports across the board, and then had deliveries of parcels suspended. For American consumers, this is a grave inconvenience and is the president’s signature unpredictability. China is responding with countermeasures, but one should be prepared for even more escalation with the Trump administration given his modus operandi.

Officially, the president claims that fentanyl — a drug created from chemicals derived from China’s supply chains, the abuse of which has reached epidemic proportions in the United States — that is a source of America’s grievances. Overdoses of the opioid kill 70,000 Americans a year, but the sources of addiction are blamed not on the flaws of America’s society and governance, but on Beijing. A great deal of the drug is illicitly created in Mexico by cartels and then smuggled over the US border, which also ties into Trump’s narratives on immigration. In the political sense, Trump binds these issues together in order to mobilize support from his base.

My thoughts are this. First of all, while there are many debates to be had concerning the flaws in America’s system that lead to drug abuse, from an institutional and legal perspective the US takes drug crime very seriously and chooses “iron fist” approaches with hardline law enforcement as opposed to social remedies. As with all US federal agencies, the Drug Enforcement Administration is a force to be reckoned with and their mode of operation is more fierce, well organized, and competent than anything in Britain, my home country.

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After all, from the American perspective, the US is fighting a literal “war” on the cartels and drugs, which might accurately be described as the most infinite loop of whack-a-mole in history. Although Washington’s China blame-game is annoying, cooperating on fighting drugs is one area in America’s national interests Beijing can offer cooperation on. All evidence suggests it is futile to try and get in America’s way in matters such as this. The American policy machine tends to operate in such a way that when it is “set” on something, it will genuinely not relent on its position.

In which case, while China should be firm in defending its national interests by whatever means possible, the best answer to this is to negotiate with Washington and find a mutually acceptable solution. Trump is a pragmatist at heart, and it is this aspect that makes a great part of Washington’s neoconservative establishment uncomfortable with him. If you allow Trump to gain results that he can claim as a political win for his support base, he will be a very happy man and this will alter the paradigm of American politics, which reduces the power of those seeking a cold war with Beijing.

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The experience of the last administration has taught me that engaging in a conflict or shouting match with them is a fundamentally bad idea; patience, calm resolve and openness is required. We can pick holes in the narrative for all eternity, and sometimes it is warranted, but in this specific scenario there is merit in simply accepting the American institutional mindset in dealing with drug abuse, being open to a negotiated solution and avoiding a destructive trade war. Trump loves to bait countries into dramatic cycles of escalation, but always seeks a solution when the other side takes his position seriously. In two weeks he has already shown more openness to engagement than his predecessor ever did. It’s time to get smart about managing relations with the US.

The author is a British political and international-relations analyst.

The views do not necessarily reflect those of China Daily.