Published: 00:22, February 15, 2025
Trump’s tariffs may well blow up in his face
By Marin Prvan

“Tariff is the most beautiful word in the dictionary” was one of the lines that the crowd cheered at Donald Trump’s rallies during his presidential campaign. Soon after his inauguration, the US president fulfilled his electoral promise by making this protectionist instrument more than just a word — he quantified it on Feb 1 by signing three executive orders.

China — unlike America’s closest neighbors, Canada and Mexico, which each received 25 percent additional tariffs — got lucky by receiving a “slap on the wrist” of 10 percent additional tariffs instead of the 60 percent Trump previously threatened to impose.

China is obviously not a soft target. It immediately retaliated by announcing several countermeasures, which Trump characterized as “fine”.

Hong Kong was also not spared from Washington's new favorite bargaining tool:  The 10 percent new tariffs were also applied to products from the city, despite the fact that Hong Kong is a separate customs territory.

In 2020, Trump signed an executive order to remove the city’s special trade status and require Hong Kong-produced goods to be labeled “made in China”, claiming that the city’s “autonomy is undermined” by the then newly promulgated National Security Law for Hong Kong.

Hong Kong authorities have announced they will be filing a complaint with the World Trade Organization (WTO), as the US measures are “grossly inconsistent” with the organization’s rules and ignore the region’s status as a separate customs territory. Unfortunately, the WTO’s dispute-resolution process has recently been stymied as multiple US administrations blocked appointments of judges to its appeals court.

During this (apparently) ill-prepared tariff turmoil, the US Postal Service stopped accepting inbound packages from the Chinese mainland and Hong Kong Special Administrative Region on Feb 5, only to reverse the decision shortly after, until “adequate systems are in place to fully and expediently process and collect tariff revenue”. Hongkong Post responded by suspending service for items containing goods to the US “until further notice”. The company soon resumed parcel service to the US on Tuesday.

In regard to the new tariff’s expected effects on Hong Kong’s economy, it might do little damage to the city as its domestic exports — mostly jewelry, gold and metals — accounted for just 1.3 percent of its total shipments last year, with only a fraction going to the US (0.1 percent).

Still, the US’s repeal of the “de minimis” provision, which allowed duty-free imports of packages worth less than $800, does affect e-commerce platforms such as Temu and Shein, which use Hong Kong as a logistics hub as 20 to 30 percent of Temu’s and 30 to 40 percent of Shein’s sales come from the US. Last week the platforms started raising prices — and the few main alternatives (Amazon and Wish) get many of their supplies from China.

Furthermore, Washington may not be overly delighted with the results that its trade war  — which is, without a doubt, part of a broader US strategy to contain China’s rise — reaped in the last five years, especially regarding Washington’s notion of Hong Kong’s “autonomy”.

Since 2020, Beijing has stepped up its support for the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region through initiatives such as the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area plan, which has increasingly integrated the city into China’s national economic strategy. Sure, some Western corporations have decided to reduce their presence in the region, but most financial institutions have remained because it provides easier access to the Chinese mainland market. The region has also increased its financial activities denominated in renminbi, reducing its dependence on the US dollar.

Along with that, Hong Kong has become even more attractive to Asian and Middle Eastern investors, with Beijing ensuring the SAR’s stability through infrastructure projects and easier trade conditions with the mainland. GDP growth hasn’t been stifled in the process, and although the city has been targeted by the US’ geopolitical strategy against China, it has remained a vital bridge between the mainland and global markets, adapting to new geopolitical realities.

Another entity that is struggling to adapt is Europe. Last week, Ursula von der Leyen stated, “On China: We will keep de-risking our economies. But there is room to engage and find agreements that could even expand our trade and investment ties. It can lead us to a fairer and more balanced relationship with this giant.”

This was probably the first time the president of the European Commission hinted at more engagement with Beijing, signaling that Trump truly is working miracles, though perhaps not the ones he intended.

In reality, the residents in the SAR shouldn’t be overly bothered by the White House’s show of “concern” for its “autonomy” through excessive trade assertiveness.

More HKSAR residents are choosing to spend time in mainland cities than ever before, witness the 2.3 million departures from the city to Shenzhen recorded in the Chinese New Year, up 10 percent year on year.

The trend was, according to Bloomberg, “the result of people heading across the border to the mainland and Macao, where they can enjoy cheaper and a larger variety of entertainment, food and shopping”. Japan Times also reported that “young Hong Kong people who defied Beijing are now partying (on the mainland)”.

Finally, Trump’s “most beautiful word in the dictionary” just might work beautifully in the exact opposite direction of his intentions.

The author is a journalist, geopolitical analyst and economic commentator.

The views do not necessarily reflect those of China Daily.