More efforts needed to resolve conflict after breakthrough in Jeddah talks, analysts say

Ukraine’s support for a US-proposed temporary ceasefire with Russia marks a significant shift by Kyiv from its stance just one week ago in respect to an eventual diplomatic solution to the three-year-long crisis.

But analysts said that despite the turning point that emerged on March 11 at talks hosted by Saudi Arabia, much more needs to be done to ensure that there is a peaceful solution to the longest conflict in Europe since World War II.

A joint statement after the talks in Jeddah, held without European participation, said that Ukraine is ready to accept a US proposal to enact an immediate, interim 30-day ceasefire, which can be extended by the mutual agreement of the parties.

Moreover, Ukraine would receive renewed US security aid and intelligence sharing, and the US would get preliminary approval for access to Ukraine’s mineral resources. The US reportedly resumed full intelligence sharing by March 12.

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning said on March 12 that it is hoped that all parties involved can find a sustainable and lasting solution for peace that addresses each party’s concerns through dialogue and negotiation.

“China has been calling for political settlement through dialogue and negotiation since the first day of the Ukraine crisis, and has been actively working for peace and pushing for talks,” Mao said.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky quickly thanked US President Donald Trump for the “positive” proposal. In Washington, Trump said he was ready to welcome Zelensky back to the White House.

Yet, Zelensky, back in Kyiv, stressed the red line of safeguarding Ukraine land taken by Russian forces, according to Ukraine media.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said in an interview published on March 12 that Moscow will avoid compromises that would jeopardize people’s lives, reiterating Russia’s stance that under no conditions will it accept the presence of NATO troops in Ukraine, should there be a permanent peace settlement.

Wang Chenxing, an associate professor at the University of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences’ School of International Politics and Economics, said a final solution to the crisis can only be achieved after the core interests of Russia, the United States and Europe are guaranteed.

“Since Russia now has the upper hand on the battlefield, time is on its side in terms of peace negotiations. But the US is eager to withdraw from the crisis, ignoring the feelings of Europeans to some degree,” Wang said.

Nagapushpa Devendra, a West Asia analyst and research scholar at the University of Erfurt in Germany, said that despite the positive diplomatic effort, an immediate ceasefire could still be difficult given the complexities.

Without security assurances, Kyiv may hesitate to agree to any political settlement, Devendra said, adding that another crucial aspect is that Russia has agreed to engage with the US but its core demands, like Ukraine’s neutrality and territorial concessions, remain unchanged.

In a joint statement by Saudi Arabia and Ukraine released on March 11, the Saudi side expressed hope that the “efforts to achieve comprehensive, just and lasting peace in Ukraine” will succeed in ending the conflict in line with international law and the United Nations Charter.

A Cabinet session of Saudi Arabia on March 11 chaired by King Salman welcomed the latest progress in Ukraine-US talks in Jeddah. At the direction of Crown Prince and Foreign Minister Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud, Saudi Minister of Foreign Affairs Prince Faisal bin Farhan bin Abdullah and Minister of State and Cabinet Member Dr Musaed bin Mohammed Al-Aiban attended the Ukraine-US talks, the Saudi Press Agency reported.

Jasim Husain, a Gulf analyst and former member of the Bahraini parliament, highlighted the importance of the Middle East as a mediator in resolving the Ukraine crisis.

However, the US-Ukraine statement did not include any mention of the explicit security guarantees that Kyiv had been seeking, as Ukraine and the US said they agreed to conclude a deal “as soon as possible” securing US access to Ukraine’s mineral wealth, which Trump demanded as compensation for the billions of dollars in US military aid given to Ukraine by his predecessor Joe Biden.

French President Emmanuel Macron and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer both welcomed the cease-fire Jeddah proposal, stressing that “the ball is now clearly in Russia’s court”.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen also praised the Jeddah talks as a potential step toward “a comprehensive, just, and lasting peace for Ukraine”. She reiterated that the European Union was prepared to play an active role in the upcoming peace negotiations.

Defense ministers from Europe’s top five military powers, France, Germany, Britain, Italy and Poland, met on March12 in Paris and voiced support for the Ukrainian army.

In a joint declaration published after the meeting, the ministers agreed to strengthen European support for peace in Ukraine, including accelerating defense industrial cooperation projects with Ukraine.

Contact the writers at cuihaipei@chinadaily.com.cn