As companies seek to extract critical minerals used in electric vehicle batteries and other green technologies from the deep sea, a showdown is underway over when and whether to allow mining of untouched, biodiverse ecosystems.

For more than a decade, delegates from the United Nations-affiliated International Seabed Authority (ISA) have been negotiating regulations to allow deep-sea mining as required by a 1982 UN treaty. Those deliberations are continuing this week during a meeting in Kingston, Jamaica, in advance of a July deadline to finish the job. With a breakthrough looking out of reach, miners could get an opening to force the organization to consider — and potentially approve — mining applications before environmental safeguards have been put in place.  

One high-profile mining startup, Canada-registered The Metals Company (TMC), has said it will file an application in June for an ISA license to begin mining, regardless of whether regulations have been enacted. That could force the organization to decide whether to review and approve a contract in the absence of environmental protections. Other mining companies could follow suit.

The push by miners comes as a growing number of nations have vowed not to move forward without strong regulations to protect marine ecosystems. “Tensions are building, and something’s going to have to give,” said Matthew Gianni, a longtime ISA observer and a founder of the Deep Sea Conservation Coalition, which represents more than 130 environmental groups and other nongovernmental organizations.

The brewing fight threatens to upend the decades-long framework that has governed the vast swathes of the ocean beyond countries’ territorial waters. The ISA has jurisdiction over 54 percent of the world’s ocean floor, which is estimated to harbor the world’s largest reserves of metals but also thousands of otherworldly marine species that are new to science.

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As ISA delegates gathered to continue drafting the mining rules, some noted they have yet to resolve many crucial issues, including agreeing on how to avoid irreversible harm to marine life and the tax rate on mining royalties to be distributed among member states. “The potential consequences for marine ecosystems demand rigorous scientific scrutiny,” Luisa Araúz, Panama’s representative, told delegates attending the two-week gathering of the ISA Council, the organization’s policymaking body. “The abyss has waited millions of years and it can wait for us to get this right.”

Mining companies, meanwhile, have been demanding the organization enact regulations this year. “The current situation imposes an unfair burden on contractors, requiring substantial investments without the security of a clearly defined regulatory framework,” eight companies stated in a January letter to the ISA.

The ISA didn’t respond to a request for comment.

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Some 2,000 points in the current draft regulations remain in dispute. If agreement can’t be reached at this month’s meeting and another in July, the ISA will likely set a new deadline, possibly triggering legal challenges from mining companies.

The UN Convention on the Law of the Sea established the ISA in 1994 to regulate the exploitation of the seabed in international waters while also ensuring the effective protection of the marine environment. The organization, which has 169 member states plus the European Union, has issued exploration contracts to private and state-backed companies to prospect for minerals across more than 1.3 million square kilometers of the global seabed at depths that can exceed 4,000 meters. But extraction of metals can’t begin until the ISA issues mining licenses.

The first area targeted for mining is the Clarion-Clipperton Zone, an immense stretch of the Pacific Ocean seabed between Hawaii and Mexico covered by billions of polymetallic nodules. The potato-sized rocks formed over millions of years and are rich in metals such as cobalt and nickel used in electric vehicle batteries.  

Scientists estimate that at least 30 percent to 40 percent of marine life in the area live on the nodules and that only 8 percent of its more than 5,000 species have been identified. A 2022 peer-reviewed study of available research by leading deep-sea scientists  found “no or next to no scientific knowledge” for most of the seabed targeted for mining.

New players in the debate

Two contentious recent elections have scrambled deep-sea mining politics. On Jan 1, Brazilian oceanographer Leticia Carvalho took office as the new ISA secretary-general after ousting her predecessor, British lawyer Michael Lodge, in a landslide election. Lodge had pushed for completion of mining regulations despite scientific objections and drew scrutiny for his closeness to mining companies. Carvalho on Monday told ISA delegates that she would serve as a neutral administrator dedicated to “transparent, inclusive and science-based governance.”

Deep-sea mining opponents believe Carvalho’s approach could lead to more deliberations over mining regulations, while some mining executives have said they think negotiations may move faster without Lodge as a lightning rod for environmental activists.

The ISA meeting comes as US President Donald Trump has upended the sort of multilateral consensus needed to set international rules for the deep ocean. The Trump administration’s focus on securing critical minerals and the appointment of top officials who favor deep-sea mining has emboldened some seabed miners who believe US influence will spur nations to complete the regulations. The US hasn’t ratified the Law of the Sea treaty and isn’t a member of the ISA, but it participates in the organization’s deliberations as an observer.

“The big breakthrough for this industry is the new administration in DC,” said Gerard Barron, TMC’s chief executive officer. The company holds two exploration contracts in the Clarion-Clipperton Zone,  and it’s unclear under existing ISA rules how the agency would handle an application for a mining license. “This year will be a year when it all gets decided. And, of course, the USA’s heavy hand will be felt.”

A deep-sea metals rush

Interest in joining the deep-sea mining rush is growing. Indonesia, the largest miner of nickel on land, notified the ISA last year that it intends to sponsor an exploration contract, the first in three years, according to a document reviewed by Bloomberg Green. Indonesia’s representative to the ISA didn’t respond to requests for comment.

Impossible Metals, a Silicon Valley startup with operations in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, has told the ISA it plans to apply for an exploration license, according to a document seen by Bloomberg Green. The company is developing a mining machine that it says uses artificial intelligence to lessen impacts on nodule-dwelling organisms.

In a January Linkedin post, an Impossible Metals executive thanked Saudi Arabia’s Ministry of Industry and Mineral Resources for “its support and sponsorship for Impossible Metals Arabia and for having the vision to take global leadership in the world’s first fully sustainable mining in the deep sea.” The ministry didn’t respond to a request for comment.

Impossible Metals CEO Gunasekara declined to comment on any potential  Saudi sponsorship. “We are in discussions with some parties and you could imagine us sending in an application later in the year,” he said.

In February, Impossible Metals announced the delay of a planned 2026 test of its mining technology in an area of the Clarion-Clipperton Zone licensed to a German government agency. Gunasekara said the technology isn’t ready, but he noted that mining regulations may not be ready either since the most contentious issues remain unsettled.

“It may push into next year,” he said.