The confidence of Hong Kong exporters has risen moderately despite the headwinds of the tariff hikes imposed by the United States, according to Hong Kong Trade Development Council’s Confidence Index released on Wednesday.
The Current Performance Index, which shows Hong Kong’s trade performance in the first quarter, was 52.1, up 1.8 points compared to the last quarter, with the Expectation Index at 51.0.
A reading above 50 reflects an optimistic outlook, while anything below 50 indicates a pessimistic outlook.
“The Expectation Index is lower than the Current Performance Index, showing the exporters held a more cautious attitude toward the next quarter while maintaining a positive attitude,” Irina Fan, the HKTDC’s director of research, said.
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According to the survey, many Hong Kong exporters adopted proactive strategies to deal with a more challenging global trade situation among the city’s trading partners, including diversifying sourcing, expanding into new markets and the relocation of production lines, Fan said.
Despite frequent changes in US policy, exporter sentiment remained largely positive when looking beyond the US market, particularly with reference to the Chinese mainland, the European Union and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations.
“No matter how the flow of goods changes, Hong Kong will maintain its role as an international trading platform, 99 percent of Hong Kong’s total exports are reexports from overseas,” Fan added.
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The survey showed that Hong Kong’s exports to the US accounted for 6.5 percent of its total exports, much less than Mexico’s 79.6 percent, Canada’s 77.6 percent, and less than the Chinese mainland’s 14.8 percent exports to the US.
Although US tariffs have applied to about two-thirds of the Chinese mainland’s exports to the US since 2018, China’s global export share rose from 12.7 percent in 2018 to 14.1 percent in 2023.
According to another HKTDC survey in 2024, 90 percent of Chinese mainland companies said they plan to expand overseas in the next two years. About 74 percent said they would consider ASEAN expansion and 95 percent said they were interested in the markets of countries taking part in the Belt and Road Initiative.
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Even though Hong Kong exporters are generally optimistic, the HKTDC holds a prudent attitude toward foreign trade, given the downside risks caused by possible future escalations in global trade tensions.
The council lowered its 2025 Hong Kong export growth forecast from 4 percent to 3 percent, which is in line with the average export growth rate over the past decade, Fan said.
