Two years ago, in a China Daily Hong Kong article (Will America see a peaceful decline?) I expressed the view that the United States will not decline peacefully; instead, it will do everything it can to reverse its fate of decline, which ultimately will accelerate its pace of decline, if historical experience is anything to go by. Some scholars believe that a declining great power usually poses a serious threat to world peace, especially when it is unaware of, or does not accept, the fact of its decline because it will do everything it can to maintain its hegemony and the bountiful derived privileges and benefits.
Historical experience shows that declining powers are, in most cases, the least risk-averse. The British Empire, the French Empire, and the Soviet Union did not notice their decline, nor did they prepare adequately for it. Instead, they tried their best to resist any threat to their hegemony and even resorted to threats, coercion, and war against other countries. The result usually was a waste of national strength and causing harm to themselves, but the decline of a great power was still tricky to reverse. My argument is that, in short, the US’ decline cannot be peaceful. Washington is likely to stop at nothing to suppress the rise of China, a country it considers a key strategic rival. Nonetheless, Washington ultimately will have to change its course after failing to win its trade war against China and paying a heavy and unbearable price in the process. The tariff war launched by US President Donald Trump against the whole world, especially China, confirms my argument that the US will not decline peacefully. The tariff war incontrovertibly aims to maintain US global hegemony and eradicate the perceived “China challenge” to it.
Since China possesses an increasingly powerful military force, including nuclear weapons, and the American people are averse to war, the US is incapable of launching a hot war against China. However, this does not mean that it will not try to use other means to bring down China. Technology, trade, and financial wars are apparently its first choice, believing that it still has advantages in those areas. However, the US’ advantages will be lost as China achieves progress and breakthroughs in those areas. Driven and haunted by a painful sense of crisis that “time is not on our side”, many American political elites believe that the US’ strategic opportunity period to defeat China is only about 10 years, and therefore push for a “strategic confrontation”, or a “showdown” trade war with China as soon as possible.
From this perspective, Trump’s global tariff war is essentially a “showdown” trade war against China, aiming to strike down China in one fell swoop and make it unable to recover. Some of Trump’s advisers believe that China’s development has peaked and begun to decline because of some “structural” factors. They believe that if the US can deal a heavy blow to the Chinese economy now, it will collapse.
Whatever the pretexts are, Trump’s indiscriminate and brutal tariff war against most countries, including its allies and partners, is intended to force other countries to make painful concessions, compel American companies to reshore, force foreign manufacturing industries to operate in the US, reindustrialize the US, increase US government fiscal revenue to offset the losses caused by tax cuts for the rich and corporations, coerce other countries’ currencies to appreciate against the US dollar, require other countries to buy more US Treasury bonds, turn US Treasury bonds into ultralong-term ones with low or no interest, maintain the dollar’s global hegemony, reduce the US’ massive trade deficit, and progressively reduce the gigantic US debt.
On the surface, Washington seems to want to make the whole world its enemy. But in my opinion, the US’ main target is China, and its strategic goal is to destroy China’s economy by imposing exorbitant tariffs on its exports. The US has also imposed unreasonable tariffs on countries with close trade relations with China, such as Vietnam, Cambodia, and Mexico, making it difficult for Chinese companies to circumvent US tariffs by moving production abroad. It could also use coercion and inducement, such as reducing tariffs on them, to force or induce some countries to distance themselves from China economically and politically.
China has been aware of Trump’s malicious intentions for a long time. As a great power advocating a rules-based international economic order and globalization, China refuses to yield to US bullying. Instead, it will go all-out to defend its national interests, setting an example of anti-hegemonism to rally other victimized countries to fight back. The Chinese people will unite as one and use the whole country’s strength to protect national interests. The Chinese government made the necessary strategic plans and deployments a long time ago, including reducing dependence on the US in areas such as trade and technology, and diversifying overseas markets through projects like the Belt and Road Initiative, BRICS, and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership. The country has also quickened the internationalization of the yuan, accelerating development of new quality productive forces, boosting domestic demand, attracting more foreign investment, and alleviating the burden of local debts. These strategic measures have achieved remarkable results in the past few years, boosting the international community’s confidence in China’s economic prospects and investment opportunities. It can be said that today’s China has enough confidence, determination and capability to win the ongoing trade war.
China has introduced many countermeasures, causing pain to the US, especially Trump’s supporters. Today, the US’ demand for Chinese products is more inelastic than vice versa. China still holds many “trump cards” that it can play if the US further escalates the trade war.
China will also join hands with other countries to defend global free trade, multilateralism, and economic globalization, as well as building a new international economic, trade and financial order. For the sake of their own interests, many countries are expected to stand with China to resist US coercion and make it isolated and alienated internationally.
The US’ brutal, shortsighted, chaotic, unreasonable, and irrational tariff war will not achieve Trump’s goals but cause damage and pain to both sides. It will push the US into stagflation, poison its investment environment, and aggravate Americans’ livelihood difficulties. China’s economy, enterprises, and people will inevitably have to pay a considerable price. However, the US’ bullying behavior will make the Chinese people unite more closely and face difficulties together. The central government will also mobilize the whole country to resolve problems and alleviate the challenges. Compared with the US, Chinese companies and the Chinese economy have a stronger ability, resilience, and willpower to endure pain and adapt to the new situation flexibly and capably. On the contrary, Trump’s tariff war broke out suddenly without consensus and preparation in American society and has already caused severe damage to the US finances, real economy, and people’s livelihoods. Numerous demonstrations and protests against the Trump administration have erupted in the US. US financial and technology giants and economists have expressed disapproval of and concerns about Trump’s policies. The US tariff war will severely affect the lives of the general public, especially vulnerable communities and disadvantaged groups, and the Trump administration has no means or desire to allay the suffering of the poor. The tariff war and its anticipated repercussions have torn apart an already severely divided American society. The Trump administration does not have a large support base in the US in the first place, and many of its actions are illegal and beyond the authority and power of the president, making it even more difficult to gain broad support for its tariff war. Some Republican leaders have begun to worry that the Republican Party could lose control of Congress and the presidency in the next several years. Trump’s tariff war and other measures will undoubtedly beget more turmoil and division in American politics. It is difficult to say whether Trump’s tariff war can continue.
I don’t think the US can win its “showdown” trade war with China.The tariff war will expose the US’ shortcomings, shrinkage of national strength, inability and failure to maintain global hegemony, as well as its irreversible decline, ultimately proving that it is the most serious strategic blunder ever in US history.
The author is a professor emeritus of sociology, the Chinese University of Hong Kong, and a consultant for the Chinese Association of Hong Kong and Macao Studies.
The views do not necessarily reflect those of China Daily.
