Chief Executive Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor told reporters last week the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region would present a number of policy suggestions to the central authorities regarding which sectors in Hong Kong need help the most, including the aviation industry.
It is public knowledge the Hong Kong International Airport has suffered heavy business loss in both passenger flow and cargo throughput this year as a result of the COVID-19 global pandemic. Among airlines based in Hong Kong, Cathay Pacific Airways, which calls HKIA home, finds itself in an unprecedented quagmire. The SAR government has injected HK$27.3 billion (US$3.5 billion) in financial relief since the quarantine lockdown began, but cannot save the air carrier without getting the pandemic under effective control first.
As long as the coronavirus continues to spread around the world and particularly in Cathay Pacific’s destinations, the carrier is not allowed to resume normal flights to and from those places. The same goes for the HKIA and other airlines based there. Given this dire situation, people cannot but suspect the Hong Kong SAR may be asking the central government to order Guangzhou and Shenzhen to “share” some of their air transport volume with Hong Kong. If so, not only will the international airports in Guangzhou and Shenzhen be forced to help the HKIA at their own expense but China Southern Airlines, which is based in Guangzhou, will have to sacrifice its own interests to “save” Cathay Pacific. How is that even thinkable?
Some friends of mine slammed the idea as benefiting oneself at others’ expense; while certain parties argued that the central authorities stated in the 13th Five-Year Plan (2016-2020) it would support the HKSAR in elevating its status as a regional center of international transportation. As a key part of that outward economy, the HKIA has the right and reason to ask the central government for help.
Last but not least, it is necessary for those in Hong Kong asking the central government for help to always be aware of the “bigger picture” of the country and have the wisdom and courage to fix the city’s own problems from inside out
Personally I find such arguments impossible to accept.
First, there are multiple ways to implement the 13th Five-Year Plan as far as supporting Hong Kong in elevating its status as an international transportation hub is concerned, but the most important of them all is for the HKSAR to integrate its own development into the nation’s overall development strategy, such as through the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area city cluster development program.
In the long run, HKIA and Cathay Pacific have no choice but to rely on the Bay Area for business growth by riding aboard the Belt and Road Initiative. At the same time, the HKSAR government is obligated to consolidate the regional economy through restructuring and developing new channels of revenue for the transport industry to tide over the pandemic.
Second, in the near future the SAR government must establish an effective mechanism of pandemic control and prevention as soon as possible. To do so, Hong Kong does not have to copy the Chinese mainland’s experience in building its own pandemic control and prevention system and execution mechanism, but it has to ensure timely detection (diagnosis), contact tracing and containment 24/7 one way or another.
Timely detection means instant nucleic acid testing to find asymptomatic carriers of the novel coronavirus. Contact tracing is necessary to weed out infections of unknown sources, while timely containment refers to immediate isolation of asymptomatic carriers to stop them from spreading the virus as soon as their infection is confirmed through biotesting.
Such capabilities are crucial to resuming socioeconomic activities as close to normal as possible after Hong Kong has reported no positive testing results for at least several days. Even if a few positive cases pop up every now and then afterwards, the city does not have to lock down again as long as the timely detection, contact tracing and containment mechanism works effectively. The effectiveness of the mechanism will be determined by the number of confirmed infection cases once in a while and ideally it should be few and far in between.
So far the SAR government has not been able to achieve that level of control or muster enough confidence to introduce the Hong Kong version of the “Health (QR) Code” phone app to ensure contact-tracing efficiency. Figures posted by the Hong Kong Tourism Board show only 9,132 arrivals in September, a 99.7 percent drop year-on-year, and merely 6,211 off them were from the mainland, also a 99.7 percent dive year-on-year. The only way for Hong Kong to ease the pain of HKIA and Cathay Pacific is to establish its own effective pandemic control mechanism like the mainland’s as soon as possible by any means necessary.
Third, HKIA and Cathay Pacific must keep a clear mind on where they stand at all times. When the previous-term SAR government was still discussing matters concerning the construction of the third runway at HKIA some years back, I published a commentary in a local newspaper reminding the decision-makers of the danger of wishful thinking instead of scientific planning. At that time my key argument was this: It’s only a matter of time before HKIA becomes what Hong Kong’s ports have become because of the rise of Shenzhen port.
Hong Kong was the top container port in the world at one point before Shenzhen’s took over the No 1 spot in recent years, thanks to 40 years of reform and opening-up. No one in their right mind expected the central government to stop Shenzhen from developing its own port for Hong Kong’s sake back then and certainly should not hope for Beijing to tell Guangzhou and Shenzhen to abandon their plans to build more runways at their international airports.
Guangzhou and Shenzhen’s airport expansion plans are based on reliable studies of intermediate- to long-term air transport demand trend in the region, unlike Hong Kong’s self-centered calculations, which depend heavily on sustained increase of passenger flow and cargo volume from the mainland but have overlooked the obvious need of Guangzhou and Shenzhen to profit from the same business opportunities. Besides, the physical boundaries between the mainland and Hong Kong also add to the cost of air travel and shipping for Hong Kong-bound passengers and freight but not Guangzhou or Shenzhen, not to mention the (social) system advantage the two mainland cities enjoy over Hong Kong, especially when it matters. What works for socialism does not necessarily suit capitalism, and vice versa.
Within the Bay Area competition is unavoidable between HKIA and its counterparts in Guangzhou and Shenzhen as well as between Cathay Pacific and China Southern. It is up to the Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macao governments to work out a way to avoid unnecessary competition through strategic coordination. On the other hand, the three parties and Hong Kong in particular should do their best in exploring the “Belt and Road” markets for business and trade opportunities for air transport trade.
Last but not least, it is necessary for those in Hong Kong asking the central government for help to always be aware of the “bigger picture” of the country and have the wisdom and courage to fix the city’s own problems from inside out.
The author is a senior research fellow of China Everbright Holdings.
The views do not necessarily reflect those of China Daily.
