Published: 10:33, November 22, 2023 | Updated: 15:54, November 22, 2023
Asia stocks slip, dollar sell-off eases as dovish Fed cheer fades
By Reuters

SINGAPORE - Asian stocks backed away from 2-1/2-month highs on Wednesday and the dollar found support as investors' tempered some of their earlier enthusiasm about the prospect of an end to US interest rate hikes.

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was off 0.54 percent, retreating a bit having gained more than 3 percent since a week ago and hitting its highest since September on Tuesday. Japan's Nikkei rose 0.29 percent.

Overnight the S&P 500 snapped a five-session winning streak and fell 0.2 percent. Chipmaker Nvidia reported revenue well above Wall Street expectations after market close, but shares fell 1.7 percent.

Nasdaq futures were down about 0.2 percent and S&P 500 futures were little changed in Asian hours. Volumes are likely to be lightened through the rest of the week by Thursday's Thanksgiving holiday in the United States.

European share markets are set for a muted open, with Eurostoxx 50 futures up 0.05 percent, German DAX futures 0.08 percent higher and FTSE futures up 0.06 percent.

"It appears that the short cover rally that began after the November (Fed meeting) is winding down and that buying and selling is beginning to alternate," said Nomura's chief macro strategist Naka Matsuzawa in a note to clients.

The Federal Reserve released minutes from that meeting overnight though traders judged that policymakers' promise to "proceed carefully" from here was not new information.

Ten-year Treasury yields were marginally lower at 4.3910 percent in Asia trade. They have fallen about 50 basis points since the Fed held rates steady early in the month.

Interest rate futures markets see almost no chance the Fed hikes again and price about 90 basis points of rate cuts through 2024, with a 30 percent chance they begin as soon as March.

"Since the (Fed) believes that a soft landing is in sight, it would be foolish to risk it by hiking further than necessary," said Rabobank's senior US strategist Philip Marey.

"If we were to see stronger economic and inflation data before the December meeting, longer-term rates are likely to rebound and substitute for a rate hike. Therefore we do not expect further hikes."

Prospects for the yen

In foreign exchange markets, the dollar, which has been sliding since last week's benign US inflation report, lifted from multi-month lows on several peers.

It was broadly steady at $1.09065 to the euro and edged higher to 148.77 yen on Wednesday. The Australian dollar was held to $0.6541 after recoiling on Tuesday from resistance at its 200-day moving average at $0.6588.

"We expect bond yield gaps to remain a tailwind for the yen and renminbi as inflation in the US continues to moderate and investors discount more rate cuts from the Fed," said Jonathan Petersen, senior economist at Capital Economics.

"On this front, prospects for the yen look particularly promising... risks are skewed towards the (Bank of Japan) again being an outlier in monetary policy, but this time raising its policy rate when most other major central banks are cutting."

More than 80 percent of economists in a Reuters poll said the Bank of Japan will end its negative interest rate policy next year, with more convinced the central bank is getting closer to exiting its monetary stimulus program.

On the data front, bellwether Singapore's economy grew faster than initial estimates in the third quarter, helped by a resurgence in tourism.

Later on Wednesday Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Michele Bullock makes a speech and US jobless claims are due.

In commodity markets Brent crude futures were at $82.32 per barrel, down 0.16 percent on the day. Singapore iron ore futures, up more than 10 percent for the month, held at $131 a tonne.

Bitcoin wobbled 1 percent lower to $36,416.