Those who demand that the Arab countries should intervene militarily to protect the Palestinians against Israeli brutality are shortsighted and unable to see the big picture. That is why those who irrationally criticize Arab governments, including Arab leaders, for “not doing enough to end the Gaza genocide” are being unfair.

For the Arab leaders, the last resort is a declaration of war, which would bring many uncertainties for Palestinians, their own national populations, and the entire region. For the Arab leaders, Israel and its international backers have strategically lost this war already — whatever the Israelis and their global sponsors are doing now is just deepening the hole they have dug for themselves.

Around 20 years ago, during the Second Intifada, when the Israeli army attacked and brutalized the Palestinians, the Arabs were weak — their diplomatic voice was hardly heard and they certainly could not intervene militarily.

At that time, they tried to resolve the matter through diplomatic and political means. The circumstances of those times gave birth to the 2002 Arab Peace Initiative. The Arabs, supported by most Muslims around the world, made the strategic choice of addressing the question of Palestine primarily through peaceful means.

If absolutely necessary, the Arabs can militarily intervene today to try to stop the atrocities being committed against Palestinian civilians but they can also run the risk of being strategically defeated and thus losing the momentum they have created regionally and globally for their development and capacity-building programs

Now, during the current Israeli aggression against the Palestinians, the situation is different. The Arabs are relatively stronger, supported by almost the entire Muslim world and the Global South.

Over the last decade, the Arabs have regained some strength and a lot of self-confidence. They have obtained considerable regional and global leverage; their voice is being heard. This was evident during the latest UN General Assembly emergency session on Dec 13, when the Arabs, supported by the Muslim world and Global South, managed to get a large majority of 153 nations to vote in favor of an immediate humanitarian ceasefire in Gaza.

If absolutely necessary, the Arabs can militarily intervene today to try to stop the atrocities being committed against Palestinian civilians but they can also run the risk of being strategically defeated and thus losing the momentum they have created regionally and globally for their development and capacity-building programs.

The Arabs will not necessarily be defeated by Israel itself, which is looking increasingly weak and insecure, but by others who are impatiently looking for an opportunity to destroy the remaining Arab armies, reverse Arab progress, and change the Arab world’s promising future trajectory.

After the destruction of the Iraqi, Syrian, Yemeni, and Libyan armies, the Arab world’s rivals are eagerly waiting for the Egyptian Army to make a fatal strategic mistake that they can exploit to destroy it and assert their hegemony over the region for decades to come.

If the Arabs continue the same pace of progress, protect their sovereignty, and maintain strategic patience for another 20 years, the regional balance of power will be advantageous to them. Therefore, 20 years from now, the Israeli army will not be able to commit similar brutality in Palestine –-- and if it did, the Arabs could intervene militarily and win easily.

By 2050, the regional and global power dynamics will have shifted so much in the Arab world’s favor that they may not even need to use kinetic force to stop Israeli transgressions, arrogance, and recklessness.

This is one main reason the Egyptian military, the strongest in the region and one main pillar of the Arab world, has been patient and relatively unresponsive to provocations by the Israelis and their backers.

Because they know that the current power balance is not yet favorable, the Arabs have been painstakingly reserved in their response to the massacres being committed in Gaza.

Many Arabs believe that time is on their side and that within two decades the regional and global power shifts will make it unnecessary to even consider the use of force as an option to settle the Palestinian question.

The Arabs persistently advocate a peaceful and fair settlement of the central issue of the region based on international law and UN resolutions. If they had to, the Arabs could intervene militarily in an attempt to save the remaining Palestinians and protect their interests in Palestine, but they know the cost of doing so now is extremely high. This cost is expected to go down steadily as the regional order and global power equilibrium continue to evolve to their advantage. 

On the other hand, because Israeli politicians know that time is not on their side and that their relative power and that of their sponsors is diminishing, they have been behaving hysterical, almost suicidal, in the way they have been treating the Palestinians, especially since Oct 7. 

Justice, time, momentum, history, and numbers are on the Arab world’s side. The Arabs must maintain their composure and strategic patience to settle the Palestine question when time is ripe — unless their red lines are clearly crossed in which case they have no option but to finally respond.

The author is former adviser to the chairman of the Abu Dhabi Executive Office and former head of the strategy division of Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. He is an Asia Global Fellow at the Asia Global Institute of the University of Hong Kong. The views do not necessarily represent those of China Daily.