Black smoke rises from an Israeli airstrike on the outskirts of Aita al-Shaab, a Lebanese border village with Israel in south Lebanon, Nov 4, 2023. (PHOTO / AP)

The threat of the stand-off between Israeli forces and Lebanese armed group Hezbollah spiraling into a “full-scale war” is stoking fears on both sides of the border as the world anxiously awaits a cease-fire deal in the Israeli-Palestine conflict.

The situation is particularly delicate for Lebanon, which has been entrenched in years of economic hardship and political deadlock. The country has been without a president since October 2022.

On Feb 26, it was widely reported by Middle Eastern and other media outlets that the Manufacturers Association of Israel, or MAI, had advised over 2,000 industrial factories across the country to prepare for a “full-scale war” between Israel and Hezbollah.

The MAI issued its warning in a letter titled "Industry's Preparation for Full-Scale War on Israel's Northern Border" sent to all MAI member plants, which make up 90 percent of Israel's total industrial output and employ an estimated 400,000 workers, Xinhua News Agency reported

Clashes have sometimes taken place between forces from both sides but the fighting has intensified since Oct 8, a day after the Palestinian Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) attacked Israel.

More than 320 people have been killed on the Lebanese side. These include 216 Hezbollah fighters and 59 civilians, with some journalists among the dead. 

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The National, headquartered in Abu Dhabi, reported on Feb 28 that Israel “has planned for a war” in south Lebanon to remove Hezbollah from the border and the Lebanese militant group was preparing to face "all scenarios", including a ground invasion. The National cited military and security sources in both countries.

The MAI issued its warning in a letter titled "Industry's Preparation for Full-Scale War on Israel's Northern Border" sent to all MAI member plants, which make up 90 percent of Israel's total industrial output and employ an estimated 400,000 workers, Xinhua News Agency reported.

In the letter, Ruby Ginel, the chief executive officer of MAI, cited government officials and the Israeli Defense Minister as sources, saying Israel could be heading for increased military intensity if a diplomatic solution is not found for the incidents on its northern border.

Further, in case of a full-scale war, there is a high probability of nationwide power outages lasting up to 72 hours, followed by initiated power outages of several hours a day under the needs of the electricity network. The MAI also said the flow of natural gas to factories is expected to stop and firms should prepare for other disruptions.

Factories were told to check backup systems for communication, electricity, and natural gas consumption. They were also advised to stock up on fuels and increase raw material stocks for possible disruptions to shipping and transport networks.

Pierre El Haddad, a professor at Saint Joseph University in Beirut who shuttles between France and Lebanon, said that while people were leaving Lebanon long before Oct 7 because of the economic and political crises, the current situation is worrying.

“The risk is here. The people are trying to get along with their lives and to continue developing or reconstructing their businesses. They don’t have the luxury to leave or stop working,” he told China Daily.

“If they don’t look after their work or clients, there’s no one here to help,” added El Haddad, who is also a senior partner at MACH Consultants in Paris, France.

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MACH engages with associations specializing in the protection of the natural environment through civic engagement, bringing together education and management practices.

El Haddad noted that when a country has security worries, it tends to slow down economic activities.

Last December, the World Bank published its Lebanon Economic Monitor (LEM) Fall 2023 “In the Grip of a New Crisis” report, noting that spillover effects from the ongoing conflict centered on nearby Gaza “pose yet another large shock to Lebanon’s precarious growth model”

“The biggest problem is not what is happening on the border. The bigger problem is structural things that have led to economic crisis,” said El Haddad.

However, he noted that not everything was under their control: “The country is not in a situation where we can prevent the war. It’s not ours, we don’t have a say in it”.

Last December, the World Bank published its Lebanon Economic Monitor (LEM) Fall 2023 “In the Grip of a New Crisis” report, noting that spillover effects from the ongoing conflict centered on nearby Gaza “pose yet another large shock to Lebanon’s precarious growth model”.

It also said Lebanon topped the list of countries hardest hit by nominal food price inflation in the first quarter of 2023, hitting 350 percent year-on-year in April 2023. This exacerbated the precarity of living conditions for the poorest and most vulnerable segments of the population. 

On Feb 27, Al Jazeera reported that United States President Joe Biden said he hoped to have a ceasefire in Israel’s war on Gaza by March 4 as negotiations to stop hostilities and secure the release of hostages have gathered pace.

Nagapushpa Devendra, a West Asia analyst and research scholar at the University of Erfurt in Germany, noted that despite the ongoing peace efforts, all the parties involved in the conflict “continue to engage in violence”.

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Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s hardline stance is “sending a clear message” to Hamas and the countries closely associated with the group that Israel will not tolerate threats to its security and will do whatever it takes to thwart their efforts, she said.

Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas accepted the resignation of Prime Minister Mohammad Shtayyeh's government on Feb 26.

“This abrupt move in the middle of conflict and peace talks might prove to be ineffective for the Palestinians,” Devendra said.

“Initial steps such as confidence-building measures and trust-building, which are crucial for peace talks, must be re-done with the new government,” she added. 

Contact the writer at jan@chinadailyapac.com