From July 2 to 6, President Xi Jinping attended the 24th Meeting of the Council of Heads of State of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), held in Astana, Kazakhstan, and was invited to pay state visits to Kazakhstan and Tajikistan. During his visits to the two countries, Xi was greeted with the highest standards of hospitality and the most solemn ceremony.
The SCO summit was remarkably fruitful. The leaders signed and issued a series of documents, including an Astana declaration and an initiative calling for solidarity among countries to promote world justice, harmony, and development. They also agreed to improve the SCO mechanism for responding to security threats and challenges; resolutely combat the “three forces” (religious extremist forces, ethnic separatist forces, and terrorist forces), plus drug trafficking and transnational organized crime; support the international community’s efforts for peace and development in Afghanistan; and support a comprehensive and just settlement to the Palestinian issue based on the two-state solution. All these will be conducive to maintaining good regional peace, security, and stability.
The summit marked another major victory for China’s diplomacy, further consolidating and strengthening China’s influence in Eurasia, Central Asia in particular. For China, the SCO is of enormous strategic importance. This comprehensive regional international organization named after a Chinese city has attracted widespread global attention. In terms of function, the cooperation content of the SCO and its predecessor, the “Shanghai Five” mechanism, has gradually expanded from the initial military and border issues to regional security issues such as politics, economy and trade, culture, and the fight against the “three forces”. Geographically, the number of SCO members continues to increase. After this summit, the organization has 10 full members, two observer nations, and 14 dialogue-partner nations. Many countries have expressed their intention to join the organization.
China and other Shanghai Cooperation Organization countries are fully aware of the sinister plot of the United States and the West to divide the Eurasian countries. ... No matter how hard the US and the West try to prevent the Eurasian continent from moving toward unity and cooperation, the declining US and its allies will not be able to achieve their strategic goals
Geographically speaking, these 26 countries are spread across three continents. The organization has become a regional cooperation organization with the largest territory, largest population, huge economic volume, and excellent development potential in the world. Chinese mainland scholar Wen Longjie pointed out, “Through the SCO, China has successfully explored in theory and practice a shift from passively responding to international and regional situations to actively creating and leading international and regional situations, from passively joining the existing international system to being proactive in participating in the building of a new regional cooperation framework, and from passively accepting the shaping of existing diplomatic concepts to actively formulating and exploring new diplomatic concepts.”
This summit shows that the relationship between China and the five Central Asian countries (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan) is getting closer and closer. The five countries are essential to the SCO, and their geographical location is critical. They are located in the center of Eurasia and are the only way to connect China and Europe. They were previously republics of the Soviet Union. After the disintegration of the Soviet Union, Central Asian countries became independent one after another, but Russia still regards Central Asia as its sphere of influence. The United States is also aware of the importance of Central Asia and has always wanted to get involved in Central Asian affairs but has largely failed. However, with the rise of China, economic, trade, technological and cultural exchanges between China and Central Asian countries have become more frequent and intense. At the same time, as the US and the West have severely sanctioned Russia for a long time because of the Ukraine issue, Russia has had to strengthen cooperation with China in various fields in response. Previously, Russia was apprehensive and reticent about China’s rising influence in Central Asia. However, this reservation has dropped significantly, supplanted by a more accepting and supportive stance. Ever since President Xi Jinping proposed the Belt and Road Initiative in 2013, economic, trade, cultural and social ties between China and Central Asian countries have grown rapidly. For example, energy trade and cooperation on infrastructure have grown strongly. Data show that the trade volume between China and the five Central Asian countries reached $89.4 billion in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 27 percent. Among them, the trade volume with Kazakhstan reached $31.5 billion, a record high. China has become Kazakhstan’s largest trading partner. Yang Jin, deputy secretary-general of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization Research Center of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said that in recent years, relations between China and the five Central Asian countries have shown a good momentum of development, which mainly has the following characteristics: First, guided by head-of-state diplomacy, political mutual trust has continued to deepen; China has established comprehensive strategic partnerships with all five Central Asian countries and has worked with them through bilateral agreements in building a community with a shared future for mankind; second, practical cooperation has been improved and upgraded, economic and trade cooperation has been rapidly advanced, and investment and trade have grown enormously; third, collaboration has become more and more in-depth and practical, with cooperation particularly intense in safeguarding regional security and stability; fourth, both sides pay more attention to the innovation of cooperation mechanisms, such as the establishment of the China-Central Asia head-of-state meeting mechanism, the China-Central Asia mechanism secretariat, and the China-Central Asia emergency management cooperation mechanism.
With the continuous improvement and development of the SCO and the closer relations between China and Central Asian countries, China’s influence and impact in Central Asia are rising rapidly, which has brought significant strategic benefits to China. First, the security of China’s border areas has been more firmly guaranteed, creating favorable conditions for the development of western China. Second, China’s energy security will be better maintained, and China will be able to obtain an endless supply of oil and natural gas from those Central Asian countries rich in energy resources, making energy supply channels more diversified and lessening the risks posed by the “Malacca dilemma”. Third, the Belt and Road Initiative initiated by President Xi Jinping will gain incredible momentum for development. China’s solidarity with Central Asian countries allows it to connect more smoothly with the Middle East and Europe. Fourth, the concepts of a “community with a shared future for mankind”, a new type of state relations, and an improved international governance system advocated by China will be realized and exemplified through the SCO. Fifth, China’s global influence will rise further. The SCO’s status and role in international affairs will be further enhanced. Sixth, China’s international space for economic development will expand, bringing more opportunities for its economic growth. Finally, the Eurasian integration project will gain further momentum.
Inevitably, the increasingly close relationship between China and Central Asia will arouse doubts and pushback from the US and the West. From a geopolitical perspective, Central Asia is the heart of the world. Halford Mackinder, the father of Western geopolitics, believed that whoever controls the heartland could rule the world, and that Western countries must keep Central Asia divided for a long time and prevent it from being controlled by non-Western powers. Another geopolitical authority, Alfred Mahan, contended that Western countries must contain and suppress any Eurasian hegemon by controlling the oceans around Eurasia. Hal Brands, professor of global affairs at Johns Hopkins University, wrote in Foreign Policy in June 2023 that “the American Century has been the Eurasian Century: Washington’s vital task as a superpower has been keeping the world in balance by keeping Eurasia divided”. He maintained that “Eurasian integration will make the United States’ antagonists less vulnerable to sanctions. It will strengthen them militarily against their foes. It will lead to wide-ranging diplomatic cooperation … or perhaps even material assistance to one another in a war against the United States.”
China and other SCO countries are fully aware of the sinister plot of the US and the West to divide the Eurasian countries. President Xi Jinping asserted at the SCO summit that “faced with the real challenges of interference and division, we must consolidate the strength of unity, join hands to resist external interference, firmly support each other, care for each other’s concerns, handle internal differences with peace of mind, reach common ground to resolve differences, solve the problem of cooperation under the principle of maximizing commonality and minimizing differences, and firmly control the country’s future and destiny and the region’s peaceful development in one’s own hands.” No matter how hard the US and the West try to prevent the Eurasian continent from moving toward unity and cooperation, the declining US and its allies will not be able to achieve their strategic goals. Under the leadership and with the support of China, Eurasia will move toward a higher degree of integration and reshape the international order, which will be an unstoppable historical trend.
The author is a professor emeritus of sociology, the Chinese University of Hong Kong, and a consultant for the Chinese Association of Hong Kong and Macao Studies.
The views do not necessarily reflect those of China Daily.
