Published: 11:32, September 27, 2024 | Updated: 18:19, September 27, 2024
Stocks bask in China stimulus glow, yen swings higher on Ishiba win
By Agencies

SYDNEY/LONDON - China's big stimulus steps helped keep global stocks near record highs on Friday, while the yen firmed sharply against the dollar after Japan's former defense minister Shigeru Ishiba looked set to become the next prime minister.

Europe's benchmark STOXX 600 index edged up 0.2 percent to touch an all-time high, with the German DAX, France's CAC 40, and Britain's FTSE 100 rising in the range of 0.1 percent and 0.4 percent.

The dollar weakened by as much as 1.4 percent to 142.78 yen, reversing earlier gains of about 1 percent when traders were bracing for the victory of hardline nationalist Sanae Takaichi, a vocal opponent of rising borrowing costs.

Ishiba, who won a closely fought contest in his fifth, and what he called final, attempt to lead the ruling Liberal Democratic Party, has said the Bank of Japan (BOJ) was on the "right policy track" by ending negative rates.

"Ishiba's victory is a relief for the BoJ as he generally supports the BoJ's policy normalization," said Min Joo Kang, senior economist for South Korea And Japan at ING.

"Moreover, his fiscal policy should focus on reviving the regional economy, which should also support sustainable inflation and growth. We believe that the upcoming inflation results and the Fed's interest rate actions will be the key to gauge the BOJ's next move."

The dollar was last down 1.2 percent against the yen at 143.03 yen, while futures tracking the Nikkei stock index dropped about 5 percent.

MSCI's world stocks index rose 0.2 percent, also touching a new peak.

Commodities have had a good week on the back of Chinese stimulus. Iron ore prices clambered back above $100 a metric tonne, copper broke above the key $10,000-a-tonne mark, gold hit another record and silver scaled a 12-year top.

But oil was set for heavy weekly losses on a report that Saudi Arabia was preparing to abandon its unofficial price target of $100 a barrel for crude as it gets ready to increase output.

Brent futures edged up 0.1 percent to $71.69 a barrel, but are down 3.9 percent for the week. That should be good for global disinflation as central banks ramp up rate cuts, and bullish for consumer spending.

More ECB cuts to come

The euro fell 0.3 percent to $1.1141 per dollar after data showed French consumer prices rose less than anticipated in September and Spain's European Union-harmonised 12-month inflation fell to 1.7 percent - the lowest reading since June 2023.

Money markets priced in an 80 percent chance of an ECB rate cut in October from around 20 percent early this week and 60 percent before the data.

"The trend of more rate cuts than investors may have expected is something to position for," said UBS' Ganesh. "We've been encouraging clients to move out of cash where rates are going to be falling and towards medium-duration investment grade bonds to lock in yields while they have them."

US Treasury yields were steady, having risen overnight on low US weekly jobless claims that led markets to lower the odds of another outsized half-point rate cut from the Fed in November to 47 percent, from 57 percent a day earlier.

Investors are waiting for the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index - the Fed's preferred measure of inflation - later in the day. Forecasts are centered around a small monthly rise of 0.2 percent, as markets are split on the size of an expected Federal Reserve rate cut in November.

Two-year Treasury yields were up 4.9 basis points (bps) this week to 3.623 percent, while 10-year yields rose 5 bps in the week to 3.779 percent.