Published: 19:23, September 27, 2024
Hong Kong’s sterling performance defies doomsday prophecies
By Mark Pinkstone

Former chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia, Stephen Roach, and similar doomsayers must have choked over their breakfast while reading the morning news that Hong Kong had climbed one notch to secure third place in the Global Financial Centres Index (GFCI), hard on the heels of top-notchers, New York and London.

Hong Kong was also top dog in the Asia-Pacific region, regaining its position by tipping Singapore by two points.

Earlier in the year, Roach wrote in the China-bashing Financial Times that “Hong Kong is now over” and that the “wheels came off” during the 2019-20 “massive pro-democracy demonstrations”, which were, in reality, full-blown riots causing death, severe injuries and loss of property through random violence and arson attacks.

After being severely criticized for his earlier comments, he repeated his forecast during a talk at the Foreign Correspondents’ Club in Hong Kong. He was highly indignant about the criticism, and the talk only served to solidify his views. But he was wrong. Again.

Roach and other doomsayers live in a world of numbers without the “HR 2” factors – human resources and resilience. They only look at the stock market’s trajectory and other financial indicators without considering Hong Kong’s “HR 2”.

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The Hong Kong Special Administrative Region government noted that the city’s scores in the GFCI are among the highest in various areas of competitiveness, including “business environment”, “human capital”, “infrastructure”, and “reputational and general”.

Hong Kong’s rankings in various financial industry sectors also rose significantly, including “investment management”, “insurance”, “banking”, and “professional services”. Among them, the ranking for “investment management” advanced to first place globally. In addition, the report assessed the financial centers’ fintech offerings, and Hong Kong’s ranking rose five places to ninth.

That is quite an achievement. Yes, Hong Kong has had its fair share of troubles which were seized upon by the doomsayers. First, it suffered hugely from the 2019-20 insurrection riots, which were supported and fuelled by United States’ politicians and organizations such as the National Endowment for Democracy, which is funded primarily by an annual allocation from the US Congress. The riots were followed by the paralyzing COVID-19 pandemic and a sluggish economy. Hong Kong may have been down, but it was never out.

Today, in a remarkable comeback, Hong Kong’s asset and wealth management business is booming, with assets under management growing by about 2 percent from the previous year to more than HK$31 trillion ($3.98 trillion) by the end of 2023. Net fund inflows reached HK$390 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of over 3.4 times. The development of the family office business in Hong Kong continues to gain momentum. The New Capital Investment Entrant Scheme has received an overwhelming response since its launch in March, with more than 550 applications. It is expected to bring in more than HK$16.5 billion in investments to Hong Kong.

The GFCI ranks the competitiveness of financial centers based on over 29,000 assessments from an online questionnaire and over 100 indices from organizations such as the World Bank, the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, and the Economist Intelligence Unit. The first index was published in March 2007. It has been jointly published twice a year by the London-based think tank Z/Yen and the Shenzhen-based China Development Institute since 2015. It is widely quoted as a top source for ranking financial centers.

In its latest report, the GFCI listed New York first with 763 points, London at 750, and — only one point behind — Hong Kong third at 749 points. Singapore was fourth, Shanghai eighth, and Shenzhen ninth. London is now just one of two European centers in the top 10. Of the top 10 places, Asia has four, equaling the US’.

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In the various sub-rankings, Singapore beat Hong Kong by one point in the fintech industry. However, this could change in forthcoming years as Hong Kong develops the Northern Metropolis into a significant technology hub with synergies linking similar activities across the boundary river with Shenzhen. Fintech is a catch-all term referring to software, mobile applications, and other technologies created to improve and automate traditional forms of finance for businesses and consumers alike. Good examples are Paypal, Uber Money, WeChat Pay, Alipay, and other debit and credit cards.

The HKSAR government noted that the report “clearly affirms Hong Kong’s status and strengths as a leading global financial center”.

The doomsayers should take note: it is not easy to kill Hong Kong with a few well-worn cliches and soundbites. Hong Kong has proven time and again that it is here to stay.

 

The author is a former chief information officer of the Hong Kong government, a PR and media consultant and veteran journalist.

 

The views do not necessarily reflect those of China Daily.