BRUSSELS - France's new, slower deficit reduction path announced on Tuesday is not ambitious but is more realistic than the previous one, though much will depend on what reforms Paris will enact to make it credible, euro zone government and EU officials said.
French Prime Minister Michel Barnier told parliament he planned to reduce the country's budget deficit to 5 percent of gross domestic product in 2025 from around 6 percent this year and cut it below the EU ceiling of 3 percent in 2029, two years later than the previous French government had planned.
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"So is it ambitious? No. Is it legally viable – most likely yes," one senior euro zone government official said. "I do not expect this to be an easy ride for France - lots of capitals will be looking closely into the credibility of the plan."
Under the EU's new fiscal rules, France, as well as all other EU countries, has to submit to the European Commission its four- to seven-year plans of reforms, investment and debt reduction to put debt on a sustainably downward path.
"All the discussions will be on the proposed French reforms and how France will avoid backloading them etc," a second senior euro zone official said.
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"I think that will be a challenge for new fiscal framework as well as for new Commissioner," the official said, referring to Latvia's Valdis Dombrovskis, who will take over as EU economic commissioner from Italian Paolo Gentiloni in December.
Barnier told parliament two thirds of the fiscal tightening in 2025 would come from spending cuts and the rest from tax increases on large firms and the wealthiest. But he did not give much detail.
France will now submit its 2025 budget draft to the European Commission by Oct 15 for checks on whether it is in line with EU fiscal rules.
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By the end of October, Paris also wants to submit its seven-year reform and debt reduction plan that would then be analysed by the Commission and would have to be approved, like other such plans, by EU finance ministers.
The Commission will also issue in November its own deficit cutting recommendations to France under the EU's disciplinary procedure for countries running excessive deficits.