Kishore Mahbubani, former president of the United Nations Security Council, is on the show this week.

Professor Mahbubani shares with us his insights on what it will take for Hong Kong to navigate the evolving global landscape and emerge stronger.

Check out the full transcript of TVB’s Straight Talk host Dr Eugene Chan’s interview with Prof Kishore Mahbubani:

Chan: Good evening and welcome to Straight Talk. I'm Eugene Chan. It is our great privilege to have distinguished diplomat, academic and prolific author, former president of the United Nations Security Council Professor Kishore Mahbubani as our guest this evening. Professor Mahbubani has dedicated over five decades to public service for which he was conferred the Gold Public Administration Medal by the Singapore government. He was the Founding Dean of the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, and has authored no less than 10 books. Currently, he serves as a distinguished visiting scholar at the University of Hong Kong and a distinguished fellow at the National University of Singapore. Recognized amongst the world's top public intellectuals, he was inducted into the American Academy of Arts and Sciences in 2019. This evening, he will share with us his insights on what it will take for Hong Kong to navigate the evolving global landscape and emerge stronger. Welcome, Kishore, and thank you for joining us!

Mahbubani: My pleasure. Thank you for having me, Eugene.

Chan: Kishore, you have often talked about the shifting global order and Asia's rising influence. This is a huge topic. But to give our viewers a bird's eye view from your perspective, how do you see Hong Kong's position in this new landscape?

Mahbubani: There's absolutely no question that the US-China geopolitical contest will accelerate over the next 10 years. There's a sort of very powerfully held consensus in Washington DC that the United States has about 10 years to stop China from becoming number one. So, actions against China will increase, and, sadly, Hong Kong will become a political football in this dangerous game.

Chan: In 2020, you told the Global Times that Hong Kong people must understand that they have become a pawn. I think most of us in Hong Kong have experienced that personally over the last few years. And there seems to be no end to the US-China tensions in sight. While we are still the world's most open economy and our fundamentals actually haven't changed, the US actually has removed our special status. That means our import, our export, our entrepot enterprises have been impacted, and business and investment confidence in Hong Kong has weakened considerably in recent years. So, in your opinion, how can Hong Kong best navigate this?

Mahbubani: It's very important for the people of Hong Kong to develop a deep and sophisticated understanding that geopolitics is a very dangerous game. Now that you're going to be affected by geopolitical trends and currents, it's important that you have an establishment that follows this geopolitics very closely, and then try to see, try to work out, what are the ways in which Hong Kong can protect itself from these twists and turns.

Chan: Last year, when you were here, I've been studying a lot of what you have said. So, I want to bring it up and ask you. You said that one of our priorities was to convince the world that Hong Kong still retains a lot of autonomy in those critical areas, that we are still “one country, two systems”, but not one country, one system. So do you think we have been successful in this so far?

Mahbubani: Well, I think to some extent you have been, but I think you need to work even harder. Because sadly, you know, when I go to the United States and people speak to me about Hong Kong, I'm not exaggerating, they think people in Hong Kong are locked up in a prison that you have no freedom to do what you want to do. And yet, paradoxically, as you said earlier, Hong Kong is one of the freest economies in the world. Sadly, of course, as you know, the Heritage Foundation has dropped you from the list of free economies in the world. That's a disaster, but, therefore, you've got to work harder to persuade people to come to Hong Kong and to see how the economy is thriving, the society is thriving. People walk safely on the streets, and everything functions very well in the city. So, you have got to clearly make it ... if the gap between perception and reality is growing, it's very important not just to focus on the reality but focus on changing the perception of Hong Kong.

Chan: Right. Since you mentioned this, we all know that the Western media is very persuasive and loves to put a negative spin on things, it depends on what the topical issue is. So, how do we counteract such intentional smears, if I may say that? And what can Hong Kong do to improve the global perception, as you just said, and reinforce our identity as an international city. Nothing has changed here, so what can we do?

Mahbubani: Well, I think one lesson we learned in Singapore is that it's good to have strong, articulate leaders who are prepared to walk into the lion's den and debate this Western media. I can tell you, one year I accompanied Lee Kuan Yew, then Prime Minister of Singapore, to a meeting with the American Society of Newspaper Editors, and Lee Kuan Yew literally walked into the lion's den, because Singapore had just restricted the circulation of Wall Street Journal in Singapore, and the American media was up in arms against Singapore. But what did Lee Kuan Yew do? He went straight into the lion's den and debated them. So, it's very important for Hong Kong, then, to find people who are strong and articulate and send them out and argue the case of Hong Kong forcefully.

Chan: Right. So, our Chief Executive, John Lee, actually has also said that he has encouraged us to tell a good Hong Kong story. But what we found is, what if people they don’t want to listen? What chance do we have? Is there a magic wand to undo these misconceptions, apart from what you just said?

Mahbubani: Well, you know, I personally have been debating the Western media for over 30 years now. I've been writing about the return of Asia, the rise of Asia, and how, rather than relative terms, the West is declining. I mean, by the way, I want to emphasize that the West will remain a very strong, powerful civilization, but relative to the rest of the world, it is declining. And of course, the Western media has fought back against the story. But I find if you come up with strong, logical, clear arguments, you can win the battle. And it's important for Hong Kong to fight with gusto in this battle.

Chan: And I'm sure many viewers will tell you, I'm sure your relatives, your friends will tell you, that we had a bit of an exodus from the territory the last few years, and while some have returned, Hong Kong is facing a manpower shortage. That's the reason why we are not getting enough people to serve in all these industries. So, what can Hong Kong do to retain and attract young talent, especially from the competitive environments such as Singapore?

Mahbubani: Well, you know, fortunately, we live in a world where there's still surplus global talent available. And there are many parts of the world, there are many talented young people … Latin America, Africa, South Asia, Southeast Asia, and you hear, you're talking about hundreds of millions of people, by the way, and you know, the top one or two percent are always globally talented, and there are many of them still looking for a home. And by the way, I think you know this too, there's a huge populist movement rising in the West, in Europe, in North America, against immigrants, even Canada is closing its doors amazingly to talent. Therefore, if Hong Kong opens its doors when the West is closing its doors, you can get really very good global talent at this stage.

Chan: Right. I mean, Kishore, you have written many books, and one of them, I read, the title said, 'Has China won?' I mean, on one hand, you know that US views itself as the world's leading economic and military power, but on the other hand, we've seen the ... witnessed the remarkable rise of China, especially in the past two decades. So, as the title of your book suggests, has China won?

Mahbubani: Well, if you read my book, unfortunately, it sold very well. The answer is no or not yet. Because the United States is a remarkable country. You know, I begin my book with a fictional memo to President Xi Jinping, saying, whatever China does in this contest against the United States, China must never underestimate the United States of America. But as a corollary to that, the United States should also never underestimate China. Now, we have never seen before in history a contest between two powers as great and as powerful as China and the United States. And the reason why I wrote this book “Has China Won?” is to point out the immense complexity of this contest. It's not a simple black and white issue, and it's one that requires deep reflection to understand.

Chan: Right, Kishore. Let's take a short break now, but viewers, stay tuned. We will be right back.

Chan: Thank you for staying with us. We have the honor of having Prof Kishore Mahbubani, a veteran diplomat and celebrated author with us this evening. And he has been sharing with us his insight into the current geopolitical tensions and Hong Kong's role in the global order. So, Kishore, before the break, you said … I asked whether China has won, you said not yet. But let’s see what the US has done as well. Look, the United States has managed to rally the support from a lot of major economies, like Europe, Japan, and South Korea. And of course with the added impact of the US technological sanctions, we are currently seeing a very slow economic recovery in China. So, has the US succeeded in isolating China? Do you believe China will be able to navigate through these challenges?

Mahbubani: Well, the answer is given in the data. You mentioned the allies of United States – Europe, Japan, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand. All you have to do is ask a simple question: has trade within China and the allies of the United States gone down or gone up since the contest was launched about 6 years ago? And the answer is: it has gone up. In fact, trade even between United States and China has gone up. So, what I point out in my book ‘Has China Won?’ is that while the United States has launched a contest against China, without working a long-term strategy, and this is the inside given to me by Henry Kissinger on a one-on-one conversation like this. And by contrast, China has worked out a comprehensive, long-term strategy on how to manage this contest against the United States. And one what it’s really doing so far, for example, is to ensure that it continues to trade as much as possible with the rest of the world, so that it seems impossible to isolate or contain China. This is a result of a thoughtful long-term strategy, which is working.

Chan: Right. Let’s look at the other hand, look at the US at the moment. You know there will be an election coming up in November. They have many internal challenges, even they have a very deeply divided society. I am sure many people would agree. Do you think these issues provide our mainland with an advantage in the geopolitical contest?

Mahbubani: In theory, political chaos in the United States should be disadvantage for United States, and an advantage for China. In practice, political chaos in the United States is an advantage for United States because what it does is that it creates like a Darwinian sort of competition within the American body politic. And in this Darwinian contest inside the American body politic, as a result of a Darwinian contest, people become strong. Only the strongest survive. So, the United States, therefore, is a very strong and robust society. And because people are competing all the time, and as a result of which, when you have to compete with Americans, you have to deal with very, very strong and powerful individuals. And you can see, for example, America is still the only country that is still producing this massive world beating companies, produced by remarkable entrepreneurs. I mean whether it's Apple, or Google, or Facebook, or Amazon. So, each of the creators of these companies sees himself or herself as a giant.

Chan: Right. Like I mean, similarly, in the 2019 riot in Hong Kong, we have seen mainland citizens, I mean ever so loyal to our country. That’s something you mentioned before. So, I mean you have served as an international diplomat for all these years. And you chaired the United Nations Security Council. Obviously you have a mission to maintain global peace. I am sure that would be a common goal. But currently, we are witnessing conflicts between Russia and Ukraine, and also the Israel-Gaza conflict. So, in your view, what can be done to bring about a solution or resolution to these ongoing conflicts?

Mahbubani: The sad part about these conflicts you mentioned Ukraine and the Gaza conflicts, is that they could have been avoided if there had been geopolitical competence on the part of the participants. And of course, Russia's special military operation in Ukraine is illegal, we should condemn it, no question. But could it have been avoided? Of course, it could have been avoided. In fact, two of America's leading strategic thinkers, George Cannon and Henry Kissinger, warned that if you expand, especially into Ukraine, you would result in a war. And the war happened. So, this war could have been avoided if the Europeans had shown some degree of geopolitical competence. Similarly, frankly, the war in Gaza could have been avoided if the United States had pushed harder for a two-state solution between Israel and Palestine. But by not doing so, it has, therefore, sadly, created a situation where the Palestinians got desperate. Now we have to condemn Hamas for the killings of the Israeli civilians. But again, could this have been avoided if a bigger effort had been made to secure two-state solution?

Chan: Right. Unfortunately, neither has been avoided. So, when do you see an end to this? Because I am sure the viewers and myself and you watching news, it’s very disturbing news, people in war, I mean nobody wins in wars. So, when do you see an end to this all? This is going to be continuing.

Mahbubani: Well, geopolitics is a very cruel business. And if both sides see that they are gaining from continuing the conflict, then it will continue. And unfortunately, what we lack in the world today is a country strong enough, wise enough to be a peacemaker …

Chan: Right.

Mahbubani: … in these disputes. See we are going through multiple transitions in our world order. You are moving away from a unipolar world, which is dominated by the US, to a multipolar world. But in many ways the United States hasn’t accepted that it is a multipolar world. And even the West hasn't accepted it’s a multipolar world.

Chan: Do you ever foresee the US and China geopolitical problems getting to this extreme of the conflicts happening in Russian and Ukraine, or even Israel and Gaza?

Mahbubani: Since I've been sharing so much bad news with your listeners, let me at least assure them that they will not be an all-out war between United States and China, because in a nuclear war, there are no winners and losers, there are just losers and losers.

Chan: Right.

Mahbubani: And I think both the US and Chinese governments are aware of this. And therefore you notice in the last 2 years, the Biden administration has made a major effort to try and stabilize the relationship. And that I think it's been a wise move by the Biden administration.

Chan: Right. Kishore, you have been writing a lot of books. And if you look at the titles, “Can Asians Think?”, “Can Singapore Survive?”, “The ASEAN Miracle”, “Has the West Lost it?”, “Has China Won?”, etc. “The Asian 21st Century” actually has received over 3 million downloads. 3.6 million. So, a lot of people wanted to know what is happening. And your latest book, which you got it with us today, it’s called “Living the Asian Century”, your memoir, which will be released. What inspired you to write this memoir? And what key messages do you hope to convey because you have been writing all so much? Right now in 2024, there must be a reason.

Mahbubani: Well, first of all, let me share with you all listeners.

Chan: Please do.

Mahbubani: A copy of … show them the cover of the book. You know I have explained in this book that while I had a childhood of poverty and deprivation, okay? I was put into a special feeding program when I was young, I had no flush toilet in my house, my father went to jail. So, I suffered a typical third-world childhood. But somehow rather, I ended up in a very fortunate situation, where I can now speak and write to the world. And I try to explain how I achieved this, but one way I achieved this is that I learned from three great geopolitical masters, three great geopolitical gurus: Lee Kuan Yew, Goh Keng Swee, and (Sinnathamby) Rajaratnam. I think if I hadn't learned as much as I did from these three remarkable founding fathers of Singapore, I would not have been able to write 10 books. But you know it’s not just about writing books, it is ensuring your books are read.

Chan: Right.

Mahbubani: That's the critical thing.

Chan: Kishore, I may have to just ask you directly now. Singapore has done well post-COVID, they had a remarkable recovery. They are attracting a lot of international visitors. Some of the Hong Kong international firms have transferred their bases there, at least for temporary reasons. And they got even higher profile concerts, like the Taylor Swift. So, what lessons or strategies from Singapore that Hong Kong must learn from?

Mahbubani: Well, I think we believe in Singapore that a thriving Hong Kong and a thriving Singapore are good for the world. And the one thing that I think Hong Kong can possibly learn from Singapore is to make an effort to engage the rest of the world. And certainly, I give you a simple example. Southeast Asia, which is so close to Hong Kong, is a remarkable region, one of the most remarkable regions in the world. Why don't the people of Hong Kong go and study Southeast Asia because this is going to be a major growth ball.

Chan: Right.

Mahbubani: And you know what? The doors are open in Southeast Asia to the people of Hong Kong.

Chan: Right. Kishore, one last question. I know the chief executive and many officials do watch our program, especially when we know you are on the show. If you could give one piece of advice to our policy makers and leaders, what would it be?

Mahbubani: Remain optimistic because I find it sad, people of Hong Kong tend to be depressed about the future. There are tremendous … the world today is also improving in so many dramatic ways. And you know you can be a good surfer and surf on these new waves that are coming, and ride on them.

Chan: One last question: do you have confidence in Hong Kong?

Mahbubani: I certainly do. That is the reason why I come back to Hong Kong regularly.

Chan: Thank you. I think we can keep going. But unfortunately, we can’t. Kishore, thank you, we appreciate your time and expertise, and your love for Hong Kong, and your perspectives on the current global dynamics and the future challenges and opportunities for Hong Kong have been incredibly enlightening.

I’d like to share a quote from Kishore himself: “In a rapidly changing world, the ability to adapt and innovate will determine the success of nations and cities alike”. Thank you for joining us and have a great evening!