The American people have chosen their leader for the next four years — Donald Trump — much to the anxiety of the rest of the world.

To some, Trump is treated as a cowboy shooting from the hip. To others, he may become the hero of the world if he restores world peace.

However, for China and its Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, his presidency could bring huge challenges if he goes ahead with a promise to impose 60-percent tariffs on all goods manufactured in China.

Additionally, Marco Rubio, who has been picked by Trump for the post of secretary of state, is seen as a China hawk. He believes every word uttered by Hong Kong “activists” lobbying in the United States. His mind is clouded by their false narratives relating to Hong Kong’s national security laws, which are less stringent than similar laws in the United States.

One redeeming factor for Trump, though, is his dislike for war and his promises to end the conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza. How he plans to do this is anyone’s guess, but the press has reported that a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin is high on the agenda. Trump was also quoted as saying he would bring Chinese President Xi Jinping to the table. That would be easier said than done. First, Trump would have to change his attitude toward China, which would entail freezing all US-imposed tariffs on Chinese goods.

READ MORE: What does a second Trump presidency mean for the world?

To end the conflict in Gaza, it would be a simple matter of stopping the shipment of arms to Israel. But then he would face the wrath of the war-mongering, Republican-held House of Representatives and Senate.

Trump also said several times that he would talk to Xi about freeing former media tycoon Jimmy Lai Chee-ying, currently facing charges of collusion and subversion in Hong Kong. That is also nonsense and impossible, even for the president of the US. Hong Kong courts conduct trials strictly according to law, and the hearing is still ongoing. Lai is expected to present his defense on Nov 20. But again, that’s just plain Trump talk with another broken promise to Lai’s son Sebastien.

Trump may go ahead with the promised tariff hikes at the expense of bilateral relations. But they never learn. As incumbent president Joe Biden has found out, tariffs are not the answer in trade wars. Tariffs are passed on to consumers, thus increasing inflation, which has become the breaking point for Biden and presidential candidate Kamala Harris. Harris, the vice-president, had admitted in a media interview that she would follow Biden’s philosophies if elected. And that was her downfall. After that, during his campaign, Trump asked his electorate: “Are you better off now than four years ago?” — a slogan he copied from former president Ronald Reagan. Americans were suffering, and they wanted a better life. Harris offered them nothing.

The one to watch in the new administration is Florida Senator Marco Rubio, who, thankfully, does not have the crudeness and brutality of the previous secretary of state under Trump — Mike Pompeo — although he still has the venom of a viper. However, Rubio is an important voice on US foreign policy as a member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and the most senior Republican on the Senate Intelligence Committee.

It was Rubio who proposed closing down all Hong Kong Economic and Trade Offices in the US; it was Rubio who introduced the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act in 2019 and ensured it was continued year after year; it was Rubio who sought to stop John Lee Ka-chiu, chief executive of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, from attending an Asian-Pacific Economic Cooperation meeting in San Francisco; it was Rubio (and others) who nominated several Hong Kong activists for the 2023 Nobel Peace Prize for attempting to destroy Hong Kong; and it was Rubio who falsely wrote in Fox News, “Now multiple citizens of Hong Kong have tragically lost their lives amid the crackdown. Thousands more have been detained, and we have seen reports of others interrogated and tortured for their participation in the protests.” In 2021, Rubio introduced the Hong Kong Safe Harbor Act, which would have allowed those who broke the law in their attempts to subvert Hong Kong’s political system to flee to the US. The list goes on and on.

On Taiwan, Rubio introduced the Taiwan Peace Through Strength Act 2023. The bill would increase the level of critical military technologies provided to the island by fast-tracking the transfer of capabilities and increasing joint training and planning, which would encourage the Taiwan separatists.

In a recent press interview, Rubio said he expects Trump to continue to back Taiwan should he win the White House, even though Trump said Taiwan should pay more for its defense. How Trump handles the Taiwan situation remains to be seen.

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Immediately after the US imposed sanctions on 11 Hong Kong and Chinese mainland officials, China retaliated and imposed sanctions against 11 US politicians and heads of anti-China organizations.

China’s then-Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian said at the time in 2020, the 11 had “performed badly” on issues concerning Hong Kong. “The relevant actions of the US blatantly intervened in Hong Kong affairs, grossly interfered in China’s internal affairs, and seriously violated international law and the basic norms of international relations,” he added.

As for the future, it is not so much watching Trump and what he does to the Hong Kong SAR and China as a whole but watching his expected secretary of state, Marco Rubio.

The author is a former chief information officer of the Hong Kong government, a PR and media consultant, and a veteran journalist.

The views do not necessarily reflect those of China Daily.