As president-elect of the United States Donald Trump gears up for his second term, he has doubled down on populist protectionist policies, proposing sweeping tariffs on imports from Mexico, Canada, China, European countries, and others. While his bombastic rhetoric paints tariffs as a tool to revitalize the US economy and combat issues like drug smuggling, history and economic analyses suggest a starkly different reality.

At a first glance, tariffs may appear to be a practical solution for protecting domestic industries and addressing trade imbalances. By taxing foreign goods, governments can ostensibly make imports less competitive, giving local businesses an advantage. However, the outcomes of Trump’s first-term tariff policies revealed their shortcomings.

Data reported by ABC News and The Associated Press on Nov 27 underscored the failure of Trump’s initial tariffs to deliver on promises. Instead of boosting the US’ manufacturing sector or the broader economy, they led to higher costs for American consumers and businesses, with little tangible benefit. Manufacturing growth stagnated, and communities impacted by offshoring saw no meaningful recovery.

My former Ateneo de Manila University economics professor and respected former Philippine president Dr Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo taught us in class the value of comparative advantage — the idea that countries thrive by specializing in what they do best and engaging in trade for overall global progress. Thus, it is obvious that sweeping tariffs disrupt this global synergy, unraveling intricate trade networks and stifling world economic progress.

Far from nurturing growth, Trump’s proposed tariffs risk inflating prices, suppressing innovation, and straining international relations. The broader consequences could usher in a new era of trade wars and world economic instability.

One of the most immediate and pernicious impacts of tariffs is inflation. During Trump’s first term (2017-21), tariffs on steel, aluminum and various Chinese goods led to higher costs for US companies, which passed these increases onto consumers. While the Federal Reserve managed inflation during that period, the newly proposed tariffs are far more extensive.

For example, Trump plans to impose a 25 percent tariff on all imports from Mexico and Canada, effectively undermining the North American trade pact he himself championed during his first term. Another 10 percent tariff on all Chinese goods coming into the US, as Trump has suggested, could exacerbate inflation on everyday goods like groceries, housing and automobiles.

History teaches us that tariffs are a dangerous double-edged sword. While they may seemingly yield short-term political gains and noisy headlines, their long-term negative consequences often inflict more harm than good

Although the proposed tariffs could add $266 billion in customs revenue, these costs will ultimately be borne by American families and businesses, either through higher prices or squeezed corporate profits.

Tariffs don’t operate in a vacuum. Trade partners often retaliate, further compounding economic disruptions. Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum and Canadian officials have already indicated plans for countermeasures. Retaliatory tariffs could severely affect US exporters, especially in agriculture, where trade barriers can decimate markets.

Additionally, the unpredictability of Trump’s unilateral tariff policies will create uncertainty for businesses. Companies hesitate to invest when trade environments are unstable, potentially slowing economic growth.

The long-term dangers of protectionism are well-documented. The Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930 serves as a cautionary tale: It triggered global retaliation, slashed international trade, and worsened the Great Depression.

Similarly, Trump’s first-term tariffs strained US-China relations without achieving their objectives. While some companies shifted supply chains to other countries, trade imbalances largely persisted. Moreover, these policies diminished America’s “soft power”, reducing Chinese engagement with US cultural exports like films and music.

Trump’s latest tariff threats may appeal to his political base, but their economic costs are undeniable. Higher consumer prices, strained diplomatic ties and diminished global cooperation are predictable outcomes.

Instead of relying on negative policies like protectionism, the US should instead focus on strategies that foster genuine growth: investing in innovation, education, and infrastructure to enhance competitiveness. Open trade, coupled with targeted domestic policies, offers a more sustainable path to economic strength.

History teaches us that tariffs are a dangerous double-edged sword. While they may seemingly yield short-term political gains and noisy headlines, their long-term negative consequences often inflict more harm than good. The lessons of Trump’s first term and countless past economic studies are clear: Sustainable growth lies in collaboration, not isolation. Tariffs may provide the illusion of strength, but in practice, they ultimately weaken the very economy they claim to protect.

The author is an award-winning columnist of the Philippine Star and Abante newspapers, an economics and politics analyst, and a moderator of the Pandesal Forum.

The views do not necessarily reflect those of China Daily.