Donald Trump’s first term as president of the United States was marked by a somewhat ambivalent approach toward China. On the one hand, he made clear his respect for President Xi Jinping, admiring him as a strong leader with whom he could relate. On the other hand, he hit China with trade tariffs, attacked its policy on the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, and blamed it for the COVID-19 pandemic.
Can we expect a similar set of contradictions during Trump’s second term? His election promise of even more tariffs on China goods and his appointment of China hawks to his Cabinet don’t bode well for a constructive Sino-US relationship.
However, Trump is renowned for his unpredictability and for making exaggerated promises without necessarily following through in practice. Moreover, he often reminds us that he is the author of The Art of the Deal and prides himself on being a successful, dealmaking businessman. His election promises may well be watered down if he sees the opportunity to make a deal with China that strokes his ego and allows him to bask in the glory of posing as a world statesman. If, as many believe, his interactions are driven by pragmatic gain, rather than by any philosophy, principles or ideology, there is more scope to forge a constructive relationship with China than we may imagine.
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We know that Trump wants to cut government spending and the cost of subsidizing his military allies. To this effect, he stated in the election campaign that he would end the Ukraine war “in a day”, address America’s disproportionate financial contribution to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), and ask Taiwan to pay if it wanted to continue being “protected” by the US. In these areas, there is somewhat common ground with China. This could possibly provide a starting point to a less confrontational relationship than we are all expecting.
With Ukraine, it is clear that both Trump and Xi want to see an end to hostilities. Much as my sympathies are with Ukraine, the possibility of the country being victorious against its massive Russian neighbor is remote, especially under a Trump presidency. A deal brokered by America and China is probably the most realistic outcome for both Ukraine and Europe.
Similarly, Trump’s resentment at the US’ disproportionate funding of NATO should be welcomed by China. President Xi understands that an ever-expanding, heavily armed NATO, rather than acting as a deterrent to war, could have the exact opposite effect, increasing international tension and even provoking retaliatory action, as we have seen with the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Trump’s less generous, more skeptical approach toward NATO, increasing the possibility of a more conciliatory, less aggressive approach by the world’s most powerful military alliance, is a second area of possible Sino-US agreement.
The third area for potential cooperation is over Taiwan. Trump’s apparent reluctance to continue offering “free US military protection to Taiwan”, and Xi’s desire for a peaceful reunification with the province, may offer a route to a solution to this long-standing problem. If Trump can broker a deal that reunifies China, secures peace, cuts US military commitments in the region, and guarantees all of Taiwan’s political, economic and social freedoms, it would be a win-win for all sides.
These three areas of potential consensus could well appeal to Trump’s desire both to cut US federal expenditures and portray himself as a great international statesman. They could also herald a closer, less confrontational and more realistic Sino-US relationship. Former Mexican president Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador advocated “hugs not bullets” in dealing with his country’s drug cartels. It may be a step too far to suggest that this could be Trump’s new slogan for his China policy, but he might be persuaded that his “Make America Great Again” slogan could be broadened to include a more peaceful world as one of the criteria for US greatness. Trump’s ego is often portrayed as a negative, but if he can envisage his place in the history books as the world’s great peacemaker, his ego could actually become a positive.
Of course, this may all be a deluded fantasy, a classic case of hope triumphing over experience. Despite his huge ego, Trump may not be imaginative enough to pursue a bolder, more international, and more statesmanlike approach to secure his place as one of the great presidents in history. The greater likelihood is for him to stick with his “America First” approach and its negative implications for the rest of the world.
If this is the case, China undoubtedly has a Plan B. Over the past decade, China has become increasingly influential as a counterweight to US hegemony. The expansion of both BRICS and the Belt and Road Initiative has been central to this. We can expect an acceleration of this trend if Trump follows through on his “America First” pledges. China will certainly be adversely affected if the 60-percent tariffs threatened by Trump materialize. However, as the US becomes more introspective, isolationist and self-contained, there is an opportunity for China to fill the vacuum and expand its role across the rest of the world.
In particular, Africa and Latin America are ripe for stronger ties, an expansion of trade, and further investment by China. It already has a strong foothold in Chancay in Peru, where a new China-backed mega-port has just been opened, creating the opportunity for new trade routes to China and the whole of Asia that completely bypass the United States. Chancay has the potential to become a trade hub not just for Peru but for the whole of South America, a continent traditionally viewed by the US as being within its “sphere of influence”. If Trump’s America goes into its protectionist shell and sees Latin America merely as a problematic source of illegal migration and drugs, rather than as a valued trading partner, China’s growing influence in this part of the world has the potential to expand exponentially.
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There are other areas where a disengaging US will provide China with the opportunity to take on a greater international leadership role. Not least among these is climate change. During the past four years, the US and China have had a constructive relationship on climate issues, committing themselves to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, especially methane. If Trump follows through on his threats to withdraw from international climate change commitments, this leaves China with a huge responsibility to step up and show leadership in this area. This is not only the right thing to do, but it will also help counter the negative impact that US tariffs will have on China. By supporting renewable energy projects in developing countries, China can take the lead in countering global climate change, and also secure new markets for its high quality but cheaply priced solar panels, electric cars and other renewable energy products. If Trump places huge tariffs on these products in America, other countries will not be so shortsighted, seeing them as a clean and cost-effective way to cut their greenhouse gas emissions and develop their economies.
We won’t know for sure what Trump will do until he takes office on Jan 20. Whatever his policies are, they will affect not just America but the whole world. However, one thing is certain. Whether we see a more conciliatory, statesmanlike Trump or the combative, inward-looking Trump of his “America First” election campaign, China will be ready.
The author is a British historian and former principal of Sha Tin College, an international secondary school in Hong Kong.
The views do not necessarily reflect those of China Daily.
