Northern China is expected to experience fewer sand and dust storms this spring compared to historical averages, according to a forecast released on Tuesday by the National Forestry and Grassland Administration.
Experts attribute the decline to weaker cold air activity, improved vegetation cover in key dust source regions and decades of desertification control efforts.
From March to May, northern China is forecast to see nine to 12 sand and dust storms, down from the long-term average of 12.5. The number is similar to the 10 recorded in 2024. Severe sandstorms are expected two to four times, with overall intensity remaining "relatively weak", according to the administration.
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Dusty conditions are projected to persist for five to seven days on average, in line with typical seasonal patterns but fewer than last year's 8.2 days.
Weaker cold air currents — a primary force driving sandstorms — are expected to limit the spread of dust this spring, climate models indicate.
Additionally, vegetation recovery in major dust source areas, including parts of the Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang Uygur autonomous regions, has enhanced surface stability, helping curb sand mobilization.
Satellite data shows higher snow cover and soil moisture in Mongolia and northern China compared with 2024, further suppressing dust formation. However, experts warn that forecasting remains difficult due to warmer-than-average winter temperatures and reduced precipitation in Mongolia and Inner Mongolia, which could increase uncertainty in dust conditions.
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To mitigate risks, the National Forestry and Grassland Administration has prioritized early warning systems and international cooperation. Officials say they are using smart monitoring stations and satellite technology to strengthen real-time dust storm prediction and alerts.
"While climate change influences year-to-year dust activity, sustained ecological restoration is the cornerstone of long-term reduction," said Li Xiaosong, a researcher at the Chinese Academy of Sciences, in an interview with China Daily in December.
China's anti-desertification efforts have played a major role in curbing sandstorms. Since the 1980s, the annual frequency of spring dust events has dropped from 17 to 9.2 over the past decade, the administration said. Projects such as the Three-North Shelterbelt Forest Program, which has restored 32 million hectares of land, have contributed to the decline.
China has also partnered with Mongolia and other members of the Belt and Road Initiative to share desert-control technologies, reinforcing international efforts against land degradation.
