Portugal could face early elections in May if the government loses a confidence vote in parliament next week, President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa said.

Prime Minister Luis Montenegro said on Wednesday he’ll seek a confidence vote in parliament to clarify whether his minority government has “all the conditions” to carry out its program. The premier has been struggling to put an end to speculation about potential conflicts of interest related to a company owned by his family, and faced two censure motions in two weeks.

Montenegro’s center-right administration doesn’t currently have enough support to win the confidence vote. If he loses, his government will fall and Portugal may face its third early election in less than four years. A snap election could delay government decisions, such as a plan to privatize state-owned airline TAP SA this year and investments in infrastructure such as high-speed railway links.

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Parliament may hold the confidence vote next Wednesday, President Rebelo de Sousa said. If the government loses the vote, elections could take place on May 11 or May 18 at the earliest, he said in televised comments on Wednesday night.

While the president is mainly a figurehead, he has the authority to appoint the premier, dissolve parliament and decide whether to call early elections.

The Socialist Party, the biggest opposition group in parliament, reaffirmed on Wednesday that it will vote against the government if it presents a confidence motion. Previously, the Socialists let the administration’s 2025 budget pass by abstaining in a vote in November, and they’ve also helped Montenegro defeat censure motions.

Chega leader Andre Ventura also said on Wednesday that his far-right party won’t give Montenegro a vote of confidence.

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Still, Montenegro will remain candidate to be premier again if there’s a new election, Hugo Soares, parliamentary leader for the prime minister’s PSD party, told SIC Noticias.

A poll published by TVI on Feb 3 showed the ruling AD coalition leading with 33 percent support, followed by the opposition Socialists with 27 percent and far-right party Chega with 17 percent.

Portugal’s last election was held in March 2024, four months after it was called, and Montenegro took office in April. The premier’s AD coalition got a narrow win over the Socialists in that early election.

Montenegro succeeded Antonio Costa, a Socialist who unexpectedly quit as prime minister in November 2023 amid a probe into alleged influence peddling. Costa, who denies wrongdoing, is now European Council president.

Minority governments in Portugal have tended to be short-lived — in 50 years of democracy, only two have survived a full four-year term. The Socialists and Montenegro’s center-right PSD party, which is the senior partner in the governing AD coalition, have dominated Portuguese politics in those five decades.

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Fiscal discipline has been a focus for successive administrations since the euro-area debt crisis, when Portugal needed a bailout. While in 2023 the debt ratio dropped below 100 percent of gross domestic product for the first time since 2009, it’s still at a high level and the memory of the debt crisis and Portugal’s bailout is relatively fresh. On Friday, S&P Global Ratings upgraded Portugal’s government bond rating to A from A-, citing deleveraging.

The yield on Portugal’s 10-year bonds rose 28 basis points to 3.30 percent on Wednesday. The spread over comparable benchmark German bunds narrowed to 50 basis points.

Budget Surplus

The government aims to post a budget surplus of 0.3 percent of GDP this year as economic growth accelerates. The Bank of Portugal in December raised its 2025 growth forecast to 2.2 percent.