Observers hail growth target as realistic amid changing geopolitical landscape
A realistic and meaningful target set by China for its 2025 GDP growth shows the pragmatism and wisdom of the Chinese leadership, observers in the United Arab Emirates said, also noting that China's innovation push will help bolster the nation's status further as a global leader, bringing both economic benefits and political leverage.
According to the Government Work Report delivered on March 5 by Premier Li Qiang to the national legislature for deliberation, the government is targeting a GDP growth of around 5 percent this year, similar to the goal set in 2024 — successfully achieved despite various challenges.
Habibul Haque Khondker, a professor at the Department of Humanities and Social Sciences of Zayed University in Abu Dhabi, UAE, described Beijing's 2025 economic growth target as realistic amid changes in the global geopolitical and economic landscape.
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China's economy will remain robust because of its focus on technology-driven productivity growth, Khondker said, suggesting that growth will remain resilient despite additional tariffs from the United States.
As 2025 marks the final year of China's 14th Five-Year Plan (2021-25) period and is also crucial for crafting the next five-year blueprint, the topic of innovation, especially in the field of artificial intelligence, has stood out during the annual two sessions.
Khondker said the Global South will benefit from China's innovations in AI, electric vehicle batteries and communications technologies, among other spheres. Meanwhile, China is also on the road to becoming a global leader in science education, he said, adding the Middle East and Africa can benefit from Chinese partnerships in that field.
On a global scale, the overall growth rate of around 5 percent places China among the world's fastest-growing major economies, with the economic increment equating to the annual output of a midsized nation.
But US President Donald Trump's tariff strategy has injected some uncertainty into the world economy, Khondker noted, citing worries about the potential impact of tariff hikes on international trade.
"The silver lining is the Chinese focus on consumer spending. China is a huge market in itself and as …(people) spend more on consumption goods, this will offset some of the losses from the external trade caused by the high tariffs," he said.
Vigorously boosting consumption has been cited as a top priority in the Government Work Report, he added.
Speaking about the Trump administration's moves, Khondker said: "I think that the tariff war, which will lead to a trade war, is unsustainable. I foresee a backtracking (by) the US soon."
He also said Washington's economic decoupling attempt, as part of a containment strategy against Beijing, is unlikely to succeed because it would have a major impact on the global economy.
"If China suffers, the whole world will suffer economically," he said.
Khondker said that in the event of a slowdown and reduction in trade with the US, China can offset that through closer business relations with Europe as well as other regions and countries, including Mexico and South America.
Trade ties
Since China has the rest of the world to trade with, the nation's economy will remain strong, he said, adding that Beijing's "focus on technology-driven productivity growth "will also ensure the economy will continue to power ahead.
Rasha Al Joundy, a senior researcher at the Dubai Public Policy Research Centre, said China's global economic position will strengthen despite challenges, given the nation's commitment to further opening up.
China and the Middle Eastern nations can deepen cooperation through strategic pathways by combining infrastructure-driven economic integration through the Belt and Road Initiative; institutionalized multilateral frameworks such as BRICS and Shanghai Cooperation Organization; and through conflict-resolution diplomacy, she said.
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This triad of cooperation aligns developmental goals with security imperatives, positioning China-Middle East ties as a stabilizing force in an evolving global landscape, Al Joundy said.
"China's mediation between Saudi Arabia and Iran is a successful deal that still has a positive effect on regional security and stability, which will be replicated on more fronts on the global stage," she said.
