MADRID - Real Madrid's hope of reaching the Champions League semifinals hang by a thread after the La Liga giant lost 3-0 away to Arsenal in the first leg of their quarterfinal at the Emirates Stadium on Tuesday night.
Declan Rice's two second-half free kicks and a first-time strike from Mikel Merino gave Arsenal a big advantage for next Wednesday's return leg, with Real Madrid coach Carlo Ancelotti saying afterward there were "very few options" of overturning the result.
While still savoring the win, Arsenal fans will probably take those words with a pinch of salt as there are plenty of examples of Real Madrid producing second leg miracles in front of its home supporters.
Last season saw Madrid staring at a semifinal exit at home to Bayern Munich before a horrible last-minute error from Manuel Neuer saw Joselu level the score, with the striker winning the match in injury time.
In 2022, Real Madrid came back from behind to beat Chelsea in the Bernabeu in the quarterfinal and the same season saw perhaps the biggest miracle of all in the semis as it trailed 1-0 on the night and 5-3 on aggregate to a Manchester City side that had completely outplayed it over the two matches.
In the 90th, Phil Foden missed a straightforward chance to make it 2-0 to City, and Rodrygo went down the other end and scored two goals injury time goals to take the tie to an extra time that had looked impossible just seconds earlier.
Karim Benzema won the tie with an extra-time penalty as City looked shell-shocked and Real Madrid started to believe anything is possible.
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Things do look slightly different now; 2022 was a Real Madrid side on the top of its game, while this version looks much less reliable. Tuesday's was the fifth defeat Madrid has suffered in this season's Champions League and Ancelotti has struggled all campaign to find balance after Toni Kross' retirement.
Eduardo Camavinga has struggled for form and his late red card on Tuesday is a big setback to his side, while Ancelotti clearly doesn't fully trust Fran Garcia at left back with Ferland Mendy injured.
That is the only reason David Alaba, still lacking sharpness after his long layoff was played at left back, where he was given the runaround by Bukayo Saka, while Fede Valverde is wasted at right back, when midfield is crying out for his presence.
With Camavinga suspended next week, Ancelotti will have to risk Lucas Vazquez at right back and put Valverde back into the middle, because for all Luka Modric's talent, the 39-year-old now lacks the intensity for this kind of match
Mbappe, Vinicius and Rodrygo are still capable of scoring against anyone, but Mbappe and Vinicius haven't really gelled this season, with the press and fans signaling Vinicius as the one to blame - which is convenient because Real Madrid can probably sell the Brazilian to Saudi Arabia for a huge amount of money in the summer.
At the moment Real Madrid is a side with a huge amount of individual talent that can win almost any football match. But on Tuesday, it did not look like a team and Arsenal did.
That doesn't mean the club's Champions League hopes are over: this week will see the pro-Madrid press start a campaign to get fans believing a fightback is possible to whip up the atmosphere ahead of Wednesday, and an early goal in the return leg will see belief in miracles return, while Arsenal might just start to see the ghosts of Chelsea, Manchester City and Bayern Munich.
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Mikel Arteta's side has a wonderful cushion, but it still has work to do.