Visitors at the summit of 905-meter-high La Rhune mountain in Sare, southwestern France, on Tuesday. (IROZ / AFP)

ROME－European Union economies have emerged strongly from the economic slump caused by the pandemic, though analysts are concerned that new virus variants may halt further growth.

The latest economic models show that this year Italy and Spain are on pace to enjoy their strongest economic growth in more than 40 years, with Italy's economy forecast to grow 5.6 percent and Spain's 6.2 percent in 2021. The forecast for growth in Italy is 0.6 percent above that of a month earlier, and for Spain 0.3 percent above that of a month earlier.

The reopening of nonessential businesses helped spur growth in retail sales near pre-pandemic levels

Tej Parikh, director at Fitch Ratings

Last week Germany, the EU's largest economy, raised its domestic economic growth forecast for the year. One forecast has the German pharmaceuticals firm BioNTech, co-developer of the widely distributed Pfizer coronavirus vaccine, alone adding 0.5 percent to Germany's economic growth this year.

Last month the EU statistics office reported that economies in the 27-nation bloc grew 13.2 percent in the second quarter of the year compared with the corresponding period last year.

However, the strong growth figures need to be viewed from the perspective of a low baseline last year, when the continent was mostly under coronavirus-induced lockdowns, greatly slowing economic activity. The impacts were especially severe in Italy and Spain, which rely heavily on tourism.

But the strong economic responses across the EU, coupled with high vaccination rates, have helped to restore consumer and business confidence and boost exports more quickly than most analysts had forecast.

"The reopening of nonessential businesses helped spur growth in retail sales near pre-pandemic levels," said Tej Parikh, a director at Fitch Ratings. "The economic momentum from the reopening is increasing."

'Biggest downside risk'

However, the spread of the highly transmissible Delta variant of the coronavirus represents the "biggest downside risk" for European economies, he said.

Nicola Nobile of Oxford Economics, a research group, said in a report that the "Delta variant will likely cause a surge in COVID-19 cases", though the "vaccination process means any new waves (of the pandemic) should be significantly less deadly than previous ones".

Giuseppe De Arcangelis, a professor of international economics at Sapienza University in Rome, called the latest economic figures reassuring, but he expressed concerns over the pandemic. "From what we can see, the situation remains under control, but there is still so much uncertainty that it is hard to be confident. Everything could change in a week or two."

The uncertainty requires coming up with more growth scenarios, both on the high and the low end to get a complete picture, he said, and one scenario that worries him involves vaccines.

"The vaccine rollout in Europe has been very successful, and it is the main reason for optimism, even as the Delta variant gains ground," De Arcangelis said. "But I am concerned that we may need more vaccines to keep up the momentum. I hope we won't have vaccine supply problems in the coming weeks and months."