Report at COP 26 puts world on course for 2.4 C rise, even if fresh pledges met
A Co-op store is rebranded for COP26 in Glasgow on October 29, 2021 ahead of the start of the climate summit. (ANDY BUCHANAN / AFP)
The world is on track to fall well short of Paris Agreement targets and warm by 2.4 C, according to an analysis released on Tuesday at the COP 26 summit in Glasgow.
The study from the Climate Action Tracker, or CAT, found that even if all near-term commitments and pledges made so far at the talks in the Scottish city are met, the combined action would fail to keep warming to between 2 C and 1.5 C this century, which was the goal laid out in Paris in 2015.
In a statement, Climate Analytics and the New Climate Institute, which worked together to coordinate the CAT analysis, outlined a "massive credibility, action, and commitment gap" at the 26th United Nations Climate Change Conference of the Parties, or COP 26.
The report paints a bleaker picture than separate estimates, released last week by the International Energy Agency, which said the COP 26 commitments may be enough to keep warming to within 1.8 C.
The CAT analysis was limited to short-term goals through 2030, whereas the IEA analysis also considered longer-term goals, including net-zero targets scheduled during the next five decades.
With all near-term target pledges taken into account, including those made in Glasgow, global greenhouse gas emissions in 2030 would still be around twice as high as necessary for a 1.5 C target, the CAT analysts concluded.
"The vast majority of 2030 actions and targets are inconsistent with net-zero goals: there's a nearly 1 C gap between government current policies and their net-zero goals," said Bill Hare, chief executive of Climate Analytics. "It's all very well for leaders to claim they have a net-zero target, but if they have no plans as to how to get there, and their 2030 targets are as low as so many of them are, then frankly, these net-zero targets are just lip service to real climate action. Glasgow has a serious credibility gap."
Zhu Xian, a former vice-president of the World Bank, has underscored the need for detailed action plans, as well as carbon neutrality goals.
"China recently announced action plans industry by industry. That, probably, is more important than trying to place on China a more ambitious agenda," said Zhu, who is secretary-general of the International Finance Forum, a Beijing-based nongovernmental organization, founded with support from the Chinese government and financial institutions.
China, following a commitment in September 2020 to peak CO2 emissions by 2030 and reach net-zero by 2060, released five documents just before the Glasgow conference that detailed how it would achieve its goals.
New commitments
A number of new deals and commitments were made at COP 26 on Tuesday, which was themed Gender Day, with a focus on gender equality and encouraging women and girls to participate in climate action efforts.
Canada said it would ensure that 80 percent of its $5.3 billion climate investments in the next five years will target gender-equality outcomes. Britain set out how $223 million in funding will address the dual problems of gender inequality and climate change.
"We know that women and girls are disproportionately impacted by climate change," COP 26 President Alok Sharma said on Tuesday. "And we cannot allow equality to be a casualty of climate. But women and girls are also leading efforts to tackle climate change in communities around the world… and we must support those efforts."
The United States announced the formation of a $14 million-Gender Equity and Equality Action Fund to advance the leadership of women and girls in climate action and a $3 million investment to help female farmers in East Africa adapt to climate impacts.
Bolivia, Ecuador, Germany, Nigeria, and Sweden all committed to addressing gender issues in their national climate strategies.