False belief often creates false hope. Detached from reality, some Taiwan separatists have been lulled into believing that the United States will send troops to support and defend the island if a military conflict erupts in the Taiwan Strait.

The poor track record of US military interventions in South Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan, as well as Donald Trump’s recent suggestion that Taiwan needs to pay more protection money to the US, have strengthened the contention that such false beliefs may lead to unrealistic expectations and false hope.

According to a survey last year, a majority of the Democratic Progressive Party’s (DPP) supporters (60 percent) believe that US aid is only a possibility. Overall, just 12 percent of respondents were confident that the US would actually help.

There is also a widely held belief that US arms sales could fortify the resolve of Taiwan’s hardcore separatists to resist Beijing’s sincere attempts to use peaceful means to achieve national reunification. Although peaceful reunification meets the demands of all Chinese across the Strait, the pro-independence DPP has denounced these peaceful attempts as indirect “coercion”.

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In spite of the fact that the People’s Liberation Army has carried out military exercises to remind hardcore Taiwan separatists of the danger of adopting provocative means to push the situation over the brink, the central government’s economic absorption strategy remains peaceful. Its long-term strategy of absorbing Taiwan over time by gradually merging the two economies into one, including by tempting Taiwan investment into the Chinese mainland, has produced some positive results for Beijing. There is a significant consistency within Taiwan’s business community, which argues that closer relations with the mainland are crucial to Taiwan’s fundamental interests.

In September 2023, the central government announced plans to turn Fujian province into a zone for integrated development with Taiwan. Fujian has also announced measures to benefit Taiwan, including helping Taiwan compatriots in the mainland handle reimbursements of medical expenses under Taiwan’s national health insurance system and launching a “Fujian-Matsu City Pass” for residents of the Taiwan-controlled Matsu islands. The central government has repeatedly put emphasis on a reunification plan under the model of “one country, two systems”. But DPP and Kuomintang leaders in Taiwan have responded negatively to the proposal.

Recently, Beijing has suspended talks over arms control and nuclear proliferation with the US in protest against arms sales to Taiwan. The US House of Representatives in June approved $500 million in foreign military financing for Taiwan to strengthen its “military deterrence”, along with $2 billion in loans and loan guarantees.

Supporters of the arms sales argue that the weapons can keep cross-strait interaction within the peaceful domain of mutual persuasion.

China rejects US arms sales to the island and claims that they only increase Beijing’s mistrust toward Washington. Beijing believes that Washington seeks to strengthen Taiwan to contain the Chinese mainland, to maintain credibility with its allies, and to stimulate jobs.

But as Kevin Rudd, the former prime minister of Australia, has pointed out, no country has offered an implied, albeit deliberately ambiguous, security guarantee to defend Taiwan with its own armed forces in the event of a mainland military action. .

US arms sales constitute a breach of the 1982 US-China Joint Communique, which stipulates a limiting and eventual drawdown of US arms sales to Taiwan. In Beijing’s eyes, Washington has repeatedly ignored umpteen requests to wind down or cease arms sales to Taiwan in line with the communique. What is getting harder to ignore is the fact that the US military has engaged in joint training with Taiwan’s troops, including one exercise in the Western Pacific in April 2024. Though China has been able to navigate the ebbs and flows in US-China relations since the late 1970s, its efforts to stabilize bilateral ties may face great waves in an endless sea of US geopolitical challenges.

Dealing with climate change, the global health crisis, global economic challenges and nuclear arms control all demand the closest possible coordination between Washington and Beijing. In spite of the heightened geopolitical rivalries between these two superpowers, the US still find strong reasons to continue to engage economically and diplomatically with China while seeking simultaneously to balance against its rising power. As far as nuclear nonproliferation is concerned, the US needs China’s support to rein in the nuclear ambitions of some newcomers.

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According to a 2023 survey commissioned by the nonprofit National Security Action and Foreign Policy for America, a bipartisan majority of voters — 87 percent of Democrats and 68 percent of Republicans — believe that the US leaders should focus more on working to avoid a military conflict than preparing for one. Only 21 percent regard China as an enemy. Western media should put pressure on the US government to listen to the views of its people. The above survey should be applauded for its service to the truth.

Finally, our think tank supports the proposal by the Norwegian historian Odd Arne Westad that the US and China should make a restatement of their core principles in relation to the Taiwan question. Washington could say that it will under no circumstances support Taiwan’s independence, and Beijing could declare that it will not use force unless Taiwan formally takes steps toward becoming independent. Taiwan residents should also distance themselves from hardcore separatists.

Tommy Suen is a community services officer of BPA Eastern District, and a director of youth development affairs of Chinese Dream Think Tank.

Kacee Ting Wong is a barrister, part-time researcher of Shenzhen University Hong Kong and Macao Basic Law Research Center, chairman of Chinese Dream Think Tank, and a district councilor.

The views do not necessarily reflect those of China Daily.