The primary reason for former president of the United States Donald Trump’s re-election lies in the poor state of the US economy. Contrary to government propaganda, the average and lower-income households in the US have suffered substantially under the Joe Biden administration, as evidenced by rising homelessness in major cities around the country and an uptick in petty crime. A telling quote from former US president Ronald Reagan, which Trump shared on social media — “Are you better off than you were four years ago?” — resonated with many voters. Disenfranchised and disillusioned individuals turned to Trump in hope of change.
Many young Americans also supported Trump because they oppose the wars now raging in Ukraine and the Middle East. They are particularly outraged by the tens of thousands of innocent Palestinians, mostly women and children, killed by indiscriminate bombing and gunfire from the Israel Defense Forces, which continue to be armed to the teeth by the US military-industrial complex financed by US taxpayers. Furthermore, Biden either refused to or was unable to restrain Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who vowed to eliminate Hamas through a relentless military campaign, an impossibility, according to most experts.
Additionally, they have been incensed by the brutal suppression of campus protest encampments. Opportunistically, Trump effectively utilized social media, particularly TikTok, to engage younger voters.
Ultimately, thanks to an undercurrent of dormant racism, the white majority and traditional masculine community in the US were not prepared to accept a colored woman as their new president. Trump cleverly highlighted Vice-President Kamala Harris’ perceived inability to address illegal immigration, which tapped into underlying racial prejudices.
Interestingly, a worldwide survey by The Economist and Globescan, a consulting and polling firm, asked 30,000 people for their views on the two US presidential candidates. Across all countries, an average of 45 percent preferred Harris, while 33 percent favored Trump. In Europe, the margin was even more significant, with 55 percent supporting Harris compared to just 26 percent for Trump.
Thus, Trump’s victory may be considered a national embarrassment for US democracy. How can the US elect a 78-year-old man, well past the average retirement age, who has been impeached twice and indicted four times while also being found civilly liable for sexual abuse and defamation? In May, Trump was convicted by a New York jury for falsifying business records to cover up hush-money payments to a porn star. With three criminal trials still pending, the notion of an American president contending with a criminal record while running the White House is perplexing to the world. Equally bewildering is his refusal to impose gun control in a country where approximately 40,000 people are killed by firearms each year. He is also a climate change denier and allowed the US fossil fuel industry to continue polluting the environment.
The global perception is that US elections have become a big-money gamble, where only the super-rich or those backed by wealthy donors have a chance of winning. Understandably, it’s common to hear people describing US elections as “money politics”. According to OpenSecrets, a nonprofit organization tracking campaign finance and lobbying, this year’s total election expenses reached a record-breaking $15.9 billion. This figure includes massive donations from billionaires like Elon Musk, who contributed over $75 million to his pro-Trump super PAC and offered $1 million each day to randomly chosen individuals who signed a petition from his PAC. Forbes reported that 52 billionaires supported Trump. This situation echoes the famous quote from former California Assembly speaker Jesse Unruh in 1966: “Money is the mother’s milk of politics.”
What will happen to the US after the election? A recent survey conducted by the World Justice Project, a leading source of independent rule of law data, found that 27 percent of Democrats would not consider the 2024 election results legitimate if Trump won. Additionally, 11 percent of those surveyed mentioned they would take action to overturn the 2024 election. Before the election, the US was already on the brink of a legitimacy crisis. National surveys by the University of Chicago Project on Security and Threats indicate that public confidence in American democracy has been at troubling levels throughout 2024. Almost half of the public — 45 percent of Democrats and 49 percent of Republicans — believe that “elections will not solve America’s most fundamental political and social problems.” Nearly as many — 42 percent of Democrats and 55 percent of Republicans — think that “political elites, both Democrats and Republicans, are the most immoral and corrupt people in America.”
Moreover, nearly nine in 10 Democrats (86 percent) agree that Donald Trump is a “danger to democracy”. With his re-election, the US may enter an era of violent populism, characterized by historically high levels of political violence on both the right and the left, which have been escalating for years. Just this year, there have been two assassination attempts against Trump.
If Trump initiates the mass deportation program he has promised, it could provoke violent resistance, social unrest and increased racial tensions. He has also vowed revenge against his perceived enemies, a move that would further fuel internal conflict.
Internationally, his victory is likely to significantly affect US trade and climate change policies, the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the Middle East, and Taiwan. His tariff proposals could ignite a fierce trade war with China and even traditional US allies. He is likely to adopt an “America First” trade policy, dismantling or degrading US alliances with Europe, Japan, South Korea and Australia while demanding more significant financial concessions from them.
Trump’s approach to Taiwan is mercenary: US protection for a high price. This stance will dampen the ambition of Taiwan separatists, as the island cannot afford the high cost of US protection. It may nudge Taiwan to seek peaceful accommodation with Beijing.
Regarding China, Trump will likely adopt an aggressive approach on the business front, including higher tariffs and a more hawkish foreign policy. In return, China regards him as a known quantity, having dealt with him for four years in his first presidential term. China is well prepared.
Trump has created a huge controversy with his Cabinet selections. His nominee for attorney general, Matt Gaetz, on Thursday announced his withdrawal from the nomination amid allegations about paying underage women for sex. His education secretary nominee, Linda McMahon, has previously claimed that she received a bachelor’s degree in education from East Carolina University in 1969, which turned out to be untrue — her degree was in French; his defense secretary nominee is a former partisan host at Fox News, his health secretary nominee opposes vaccines, his secretary for environmental protection nominee wants to withdraw from the global climate agreements, his United Nations ambassador nominee supports withdrawing from the UN, and his secretary of state nominee cannot visit China due to sanctions.
For those Americans who voted for Trump, one must wonder if this is now a case of “elect and regret”.
The author is an adjunct professor of HKU Space and an honorary fellow of Hong Kong Metropolitan University. He is a council member of the Chinese Association of Hong Kong & Macao Studies.
The views do not necessarily reflect those of China Daily.
