More than a decade ago, the United States began to get concerned about the rise of China and presidents George W Bush and Barack Obama started action to contain it. Shortly after Donald Trump took office as US president in 2017, he defined China as a strategic competitor, asserting that the past policy of “engagement” had failed. Instead, he focused on containing China as the linchpin to “make America great again” and employed trade and technology wars against China. This month, Trump will become US president again, and this time, more of his key officials are China super-hawks.
Almost all observers believe the new Trump administration will launch a blistering policy to contain China, especially in trade, technology and investment. It might even permanently cancel China’s most favored nation status. This move would be a desperate attempt to reverse the momentum of China’s rise through maximum economic decoupling. The US will also entice or coerce its allies and partners to side with it. In addition, the US will encourage or compel Western corporations and investment funds to exit China. At the diplomatic level, the US will be more active in using Taiwan as a “chess piece”, constantly provoking China on the Taiwan question to force it to make concessions to the US on other matters. On the other hand, Trump believes that war will deplete the US’ national strength and be detrimental to making America great again. Although he will significantly increase defense spending, Trump will avoid getting involved in wars, especially wars between great powers. Trump will not go to war with China over Taiwan, as he genuinely believes that the US cannot defeat China militarily.
Admittedly, it is still unknown whether Trump will listen to the suggestions of his China super-hawks after taking office. He will likely impose hefty tariffs on Chinese goods and further curb China’s technological development. But Trump’s most significant trait is that he handles relations with China from a “transactional” perspective, striving to seek the maximum amount of material benefits for the US at minimal cost, rather than trying to subdue China for “ideological victory”. Therefore, there is room for negotiation and compromise between Trump and Beijing. In addition, if Trump’s hardline China policy does not work and the US sustains heavy losses, Trump, as a pragmatic “trader”, will change course abruptly.
Thus, there are tremendous uncertainties in China-US relations under Trump, contingent on changes in the balance of power between them. Predictably, Trump will initially adopt extreme policies to contain China. However, China will immediately counterattack ferociously, hopefully forcing the US to retreat when it sees the escalating damage. In fact, after dealing with the first Trump administration, China now clearly understands Trump’s personality, way of doing things, and capabilities, and has continuously enhanced its ability to counter US hostility. After President Joe Biden came to power in 2021, he continued and strengthened Trump’s policy of containing China, forcing it to bolster its ability to inflict painful countermeasures.
Today, Trump is facing a China that is more powerful, more experienced and more difficult to subdue. Various signs show that, for the sake of national rejuvenation, China will not accommodate the US’ bullying behavior. The entire Chinese nation will unite to counter US hostility, irrespective of the cost. On the one hand, China will force the US to cease its tactics of suppression. On the other hand, China will induce other countries to rationally judge the pros and cons of siding with the US against China and make wise decisions in line with their own national interests.
As his term comes to an end, Biden has adopted many unprecedentedly harsh containment measures against China, especially in technological embargoes and arms sales to Taiwan. This allows China to demonstrate its stronger and uncompromising stance and issue warnings to Trump.
In October 2024, the US announced a new arms sale worth $1.988 billion to Taiwan. This is the 17th and the most expensive arms sale to the island under Biden. China responded quickly to this. On Dec 5, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced its decision to take countermeasures against US military-industrial enterprises and senior managers. Aimed at 13 US military-industrial companies and six executives, these measures targeted US drone and datalink technologies and are more severe than previous sanctions, prohibiting other countries from selling relevant goods to the US for the first time. Previously, in 2024, China counterattacked US military-industrial companies six times.
On Dec 2, the US government announced a new round of export restrictions against China, including more than 140 Chinese companies on the entity list, involving semiconductor manufacturing equipment and electronic design automation tools as well as various other products. It also expanded its “long-arm jurisdiction” and restricted China’s trade with third-party countries such as Japan, the Netherlands, Israel, Malaysia, Singapore and South Korea. The US maliciously intends to strangle China’s semiconductor industry and force its allies and other countries to make sacrifices on its behalf.
What is different from the past is that China quickly and fiercely counterattacked. On Dec 3, the Ministry of Commerce announced it would implement export controls on strategic rare metals and superhard substances such as gallium, germanium and antimony, widely used in semiconductor manufacturing and new energy technologies. To prevent the US from obtaining those materials from third parties, the Ministry of Commerce declared: “Organizations and individuals from any country or region, in violation of the above regulations, in transferring or providing relevant dual-use items originating in the People’s Republic of China to organizations and individuals in the United States, will be held accountable by law.”
China can even take advantage of a potential “decisive war” with the US to further hone its fighting skills, unite and inspire its people, accelerate technological progress and autonomy, and build an economic system with more resilience and development potential. Trump’s violent attacks on China and extreme containment can help the country make key progress in Chinese-style modernization and the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation
On the same day, the Internet Society of China, the Chinese Association of Automobile Manufacturers, the China Semiconductor Industry Association and the China Association of Communications Enterprises issued statements warning that US chip products were no longer safe and called on domestic companies to be “cautious” about purchasing them. Simultaneously, China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology began requiring large domestic telecom operators to phase out foreign chips by 2027. This systemic, strategic adjustment by Beijing shows that China is determined to seek independence in the chip field and no longer rely on Western companies. It is believed that the export of dysprosium, an indispensable raw material in high-end chip production, will also be controlled. Citing people familiar with the matter, Bloomberg reported that China has begun restricting exports of key drone parts, including motors, batteries and flight controllers, to the US and Europe.
Indisputably, China’s draconian countermeasures will adversely impact the development of US semiconductors and other high-tech and defense industries.
Although the US has significantly reduced its dependence on imports of manufactured goods from China over the past five years, many US allies and partners have actively sought to improve relations with China recently. According to the Peterson Institute for International Economics research, the European Union’s economic dependence on China has increased. Despite ongoing talks about “de-risking” in Asia, China remains Japan’s largest trading partner. Therefore, notwithstanding Trump’s potentially strenuous efforts to twist the arms of US allies and partners, they will unlikely wholeheartedly comply with the US actions to contain China. They will inevitably vigorously oppose Trump’s unreasonable demands, which are, at best, hypocritical, selfish and unjustified, as well as useless in subduing China. They will accord US actions lukewarm support but will seek to maintain economic and trade ties with China to the greatest extent possible to safeguard their own interests.
Although the trade and technology wars launched by Trump against China during his first term harmed China, the US also paid a considerable price. The US did not win. Biden’s even fiercer trade and technology wars against China were also unsuccessful. In the past eight years, Trump and Biden’s containment policies have failed to prevent China’s continuous economic and technological progress, including in the semiconductor field. In response to the US’ long-term strategy of containment, China has, over the years, wisely adopted a series of effective policies and measures, including: creating new international space for economic development outside the Western world, wherein the Belt and Road Initiative and BRICS cooperation are critical; accelerating the development of new quality productive forces, especially in the fields of high-end chips, artificial intelligence and quantum computing; vigorously boosting domestic demand and consumption; properly handling real estate problems and local debts; strengthening national defense capabilities; promoting the internationalization of the renminbi; increasing liquidity in the economy; continuing to reduce holdings of US Treasury bonds; and seeking support and trust for China from the Global South. After eight years of hard work, China’s comprehensive national power, international status and influence have reached a point where it can counter US’ policies. Because of this, China today not only has sufficient confidence, wisdom and ability to thwart US containment, it can even cause the US unimaginable and unbearable damage when necessary.
Overall, the policies that Trump has pre-announced, including those about China, are self-contradictory and full of loopholes. They are attractive to many Americans but also highly deceptive. Many experts believe that Trump’s policies will not help the US regain its past glory but instead plunge it into a bottomless quagmire and accelerate its decline. American economist Adam Posen derided “Trumponomics” as “madman economics”. He explained: “Almost all of Trump’s economic proposals would reduce the labor supply, industrial inputs, consumer goods, and federal tax revenues.” Studies by Australian economist Warwick McKibbin and others show that Trump’s immigration policies, trade policies, and the erosion of the Federal Reserve’s autonomy will all have negative consequences. They would lower US production and employment, especially in trade-exposed sectors like manufacturing and agriculture, and produce higher US inflation. Trade policy so far has done little to improve the US trade balance. The weakening of the Federal Reserve’s autonomy will lead to capital outflows, a sharp depreciation of the dollar, and an increase in unemployment by the end of 2028, thus worsening the standard of living in the US.
Furthermore, although Trump bragged about ending the Russia-Ukraine conflict and chaos in the Middle East in the short term, he certainly underestimated the severity of the international situation. The sudden regime change in Syria may only make the situation in the region more uncertain and suck the US into the Middle East swamp again. Both Biden and Trump have been keen to withdraw from the region to concentrate resources on containing China. However, the US seems to be getting the opposite. It will still have great difficulty extricating itself from Europe and the Middle East. It may even find it necessary to seek China’s assistance to end the chaos in those regions.
If Trump insists on implementing his wrong-headed domestic and foreign policies, the US will soon face severe internal and external troubles. As a result, it may not be easy for the US to concentrate its efforts on containing China. As a political gambler and “dealer” who is not bound by ideology, it cannot be ruled out that Trump will change his stance on China to cut losses after realizing that the going is not good, the losses are too hefty, and there is no chance of winning. Be that as it may, however, China will not harbor illusions about this and will make decisions with the worst-case scenario in mind.
China can even take advantage of a potential “decisive war” with the US to further hone its fighting skills, unite and inspire its people, accelerate technological progress and autonomy, and build an economic system with more resilience and development potential. Trump’s violent attacks on China and extreme containment can help the country make key progress in Chinese-style modernization and the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation.
The author is a professor emeritus of sociology, the Chinese University of Hong Kong, and a consultant for the Chinese Association of Hong Kong and Macao Studies.
The views do not necessarily reflect those of China Daily.
