China is set to remain the world's top producer and consumer of steel in 2025, driven by strong demand from industries like new energy vehicles, household appliances and shipbuilding despite an expected slight dip in overall demand, said the China Iron and Steel Association.
CISA said there will be rising demand for critical steel materials such as high-quality special steel — special steel varieties with higher performance, longer lifespans, environmentally friendly characteristics, high-tech content and higher added-value special alloys for high-end equipment.
The association said that while steel demand is expected to continue decreasing this year, the rate of decline is likely to narrow.
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"The apparent consumption of crude steel in China has declined from its peak of 1.048 billion metric tons in 2020 to 892 million tons in 2024, reflecting a decrease of 156 million tons over a span of four years. Forecasts suggest a continued downturn in downstream steel demand this year, albeit at a potentially slower pace. With a focus on policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market, steel demand decline from the construction sector is projected to ease," said Yao Lin, head of the association.
Yao said policies such as the consumer goods trade-in program will spur consumption and production in the automotive and household appliance industries, thereby driving demand for a certain type of high-grade silicon steel. Steel used in household appliances will prioritize lightweight and corrosion-resistant requirements. Steel used in shipbuilding is also expected to see significant growth.
"Additionally, demand for high-strength steel in sectors such as engineering machinery and mining equipment is set to rise. There is a certain growth potential in the demand for steel in high-end pressure vessels, which are used in new energy equipment," he said.
Yao said a primary challenge faced by the steel sector is ample total supply capacity coupled with weakened demand, with a new dynamic balance mechanism between supply and demand yet to be established. He said such a situation has posed significant challenges for steel companies' stable operations and profitability.
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Moreover, steel exports also face obstacles due to geopolitical tensions and trade frictions. CISA data showed that in 2024, China was involved in 33 cases of trade remedy investigations, surpassing the total number from 2020 to 2023.
In response to these challenges, Yao stressed the need to continue breaking through in various aspects such as constructing a new balance between market supply and demand, adjusting industrial structures, developing resource security systems, and advancing the development of key core technologies. Steel enterprises must also fight against price-centered hypercompetition and continue to promote green and low-carbon transformation.
Song Zhiping, head of the China Association for Public Companies, emphasized the importance of preventing industry-wide competitive pressures and further advancing structural reforms on the supply side. This includes strictly limiting homogeneous additions while enhancing the absorption capacity of surplus production capacity on the demand side.
"Enterprises should focus on enhancing product differentiation, branding and specialization, particularly by intensifying research and development efforts and producing high-value-added products," he said.
