The United States’ recent decision to impose sweeping tariffs on goods from China, Canada and Mexico, a move spearheaded by President Donald Trump’s executive order, has reignited the flames of a trade war that the global economy can ill afford. This protectionist gambit, framed by the Trump administration as a means to “protect American industries”, is a self-defeating strategy that undermines US interests, destabilizes the global economy, and betrays the principles of multilateral cooperation.
The Trump administration’s tariffs, a continuation of the protectionist policies that defined his first term, ignore a fundamental truth: Tariffs are taxes paid by American consumers and businesses. Historical precedent proves this. A 2019 study by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York found that US companies and households bore over 90 percent of the cost of tariffs on Chinese goods during the Trump-era trade war, exacerbating inflation and supply-chain bottlenecks. Today, with global inflation still simmering, renewed tariffs on electric vehicles, semiconductors, and green technology components will raise prices for critical goods, stifling America’s clean-energy transition and burdening middle-class families.
The US Chamber of Commerce has repeatedly warned that tariffs disrupt supply chains, deter investment, and invite retaliation. China’s countermeasures — targeting American fossil fuels, agricultural machinery, large-displacement vehicles and pickup trucks — will compound the pain. This tit-for-tat cycle benefits no one.
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The US tariffs arrive at a precarious moment for the world economy. The post-pandemic recovery remains uneven, geopolitical tensions simmer in Europe and Asia, and developing nations grapple with debt crises. A renewed US-China trade war risks fracturing global markets into blocs, throttling growth for all. The World Trade Organization (WTO) has forecast sluggish trade growth in 2025; escalating protectionism could tip the scales toward recession.
China, as the world’s largest exporter and second-largest economy, is deeply integrated into global supply chains. From smartphones to solar panels, Chinese manufacturing supports industries worldwide. Tariffs that disrupt this ecosystem will reverberate far beyond US and Chinese borders, penalizing European manufacturers, Southeast Asian assemblers, and African consumers alike. The Trump administration’s unilateralism disregards this interdependence, prioritizing short-term political posturing over long-term stability.
Over the past 40 years, China has lifted 800 million people out of poverty, becoming a pillar of the global trading system. While concerns over intellectual property and market access persist, the proper venue for resolving disputes is the WTO — not unilateral tariffs. The US move flouts international law, setting a dangerous precedent that erodes the rules-based international order Washington claims to uphold.
Moreover, the tariffs’ timing — right after a US election — suggests they are less about economic strategy than domestic politics. By scapegoating China, policymakers deflect from structural challenges at home: lagging workforce training, crumbling infrastructure, and corporate short-termism. China is not the cause of these issues, nor will tariffs solve them.
Beijing’s vow to “resolutely safeguard its legitimate rights and interests” through countermeasures is neither surprising nor escalatory. It is a principled defense of national interest and a signal that China will not capitulate to coercion. Importantly, China’s retaliatory measures are proportionate and targeted, designed to minimize domestic disruption while underscoring the futility of US tactics.
Critics in the West often dismiss China’s stance as “aggressive”, yet it is the US that has weaponized trade policy, from extraterritorial sanctions to sweeping export controls. China’s approach, by contrast, emphasizes dialogue and mutual benefit. The Belt and Road Initiative, Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, and recent diplomatic outreach to Europe exemplify Beijing’s commitment to inclusive globalization — a stark contrast to America’s zero-sum mindset.
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The solution to US-China trade tensions is not less engagement but more. Both nations must return to the negotiating table, addressing grievances through existing frameworks like the WTO or bilateral dialogues. China has already taken steps to level the playing field, revising intellectual property laws and expanding market access for foreign firms. The US, meanwhile, must abandon its addiction to tariffs and invest in competitiveness — boosting research and development, revitalizing infrastructure, and reskilling workers.
History teaches us that trade wars have no winners. The Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930 deepened the Great Depression; the 2018-19 US-China clash cost the American economy nearly 300,000 jobs and $316 billion in lost GDP, per Moody’s Analytics. Today, the stakes are even higher. Climate change, artificial-intelligence governance, and global health demand US-China collaboration, not antagonism.
The Trump administration’s tariff gambit is a relic of a bygone era, out of step with the interconnected realities of the 21st century. As Hong Kong’s experience proves, openness and cooperation — not walls and whims — are the engines of prosperity. Washington would do well to heed this lesson before its myopic strategy inflicts irreversible harm. The world cannot afford another trade war. It is time for the US to choose partnership over protectionism.
The author is the convener at China Retold, a member of the Legislative Council, and a member of the Central Committee of the New People’s Party.
The views do not necessarily reflect those of China Daily.