If “America First” and “Make America Great Again” helped win the United States presidential election for Donald Trump, his second term in office might well deserve the epithet “Back To The Future”. Certainly, some of his first actions as president have all the hallmarks of someone wanting to turn back the clock to simpler times when a confident and expanding America was first asserting itself on the world stage.
Trump’s inspiration for his second term may well come from two former presidents who seem to have provided the template for the current flurry of presidential policies and pronouncements. The first of these is James Monroe, who served as America’s fifth president from 1817 to 1825. He is remembered for two initiatives. Firstly, he pursued a policy of expansionism against the colonial European states on his doorstep. Prior to becoming president, when acting as then-president Jefferson’s special envoy, Monroe helped negotiate and was a signatory to the Louisiana Purchase, whereby France sold Louisiana to the US for $15 million in 1803, almost doubling the size of the fledgling country. Then, as president, he acquired Florida from the Spanish Empire in 1819 and established the US’ western border with New Spain. Monroe’s main claim to fame, however, was his landmark “Monroe Doctrine” of 1823. This declared US opposition to any European intervention in the recently independent countries of the Americas, making clear that the Western hemisphere was now off-limits for foreign powers. This doctrine has been at the heart of US policy ever since, most famously being invoked during the Cuban missile crisis of 1962.
There are obvious parallels with Monroe in Trump’s current focus on expansionism and the strengthening of US dominance in the Western hemisphere. His pronouncements about wanting to annex Canada, take control of the Panama Canal, purchase Greenland from Denmark, and even re-name the Gulf of Mexico as the Gulf of America are throwbacks to a colonial era when a more nationalistic and transactional approach to foreign affairs was the norm. It seems that once again this approach is back in the ascendancy, trumping (if you’ll excuse the expression) the more nuanced, diplomatic approach to international relations.
The other US president that Trump seems to be drawing inspiration from is even more significant than Monroe. William McKinley was the 25th US president, serving from 1897 until he was assassinated in 1901. Like Monroe, he presided over an era of territorial expansion. He was victorious in the Spanish-American War of 1898, leading to the annexation of Puerto Rico, Guam, the Philippines and Hawaii in the same year. McKinley also raised average tariffs on all US imports to 49.5 percent. His extreme protectionist policy, shielding American manufacturers and factory workers from foreign competition, led to him being dubbed the “Napoleon of Protection”. Trump is clearly a fan of McKinley, referring to him in his inaugural speech as “a natural businessman” who “made our country very rich through tariffs and through talent”. Trump’s own expansionist territorial ambitions and his protectionist approach to the economy, describing tariff as “a beautiful word”, are straight out of McKinley’s playbook.
Trump’s “America First” economic policies will inevitably lead countries to search out less volatile, more stable trading partners. China is ideally poised to fill the vacuum being left by America turning in on itself. Even those countries skeptical about the BRI can be won over by China’s win-win, collaborative approach and its credentials as a trusted trading partner and investor. The result will be a realignment of trading relationships as countries pivot toward China and away from Trump’s “Back To The Future” reincarnation of “America First”
It’s still early days in Trump’s second term in office, but if his opening salvos are anything to go by, he seems set to emulate the approaches of both Monroe and McKinley. His pronouncements about expansionism in the Western hemisphere, differences with Europe, and an inward-looking, protectionist economic policy are all reminiscent of 19th century America.
Clearly, Trump’s supporters believe that these policies will fulfil his “America First” and “Make America Great Again” election promises. Others, however, might question whether 19th century solutions are appropriate for 21st century problems. Territorial designs on neighboring countries are hard to justify in our post-colonial world. So too are abandoning international and environmental commitments, renouncing free trade and launching a tariff war. This contradictory combination of expansionist ambitions and inward-looking policies is more likely to make America isolated than “great again”. Picking quarrels with neighbors and allies will weaken America’s standing and authority in the world. Hiking tariffs will lead to price inflation and discontent at home (as it did under McKinley) and also weaken US relations with the rest of the world.
Ironically, given America’s anti-China stance of the past few years and its persistent “China threat” narrative, the main beneficiary of Trump’s current policies is likely to be China. Strengthening America’s grip on the Western hemisphere resurrects the Monroe Doctrine principle that the world is divided into regional spheres of influence. Logically, this reinforces Beijing’s view that the US should keep out of China’s regional sphere of influence in the South China Sea.
More importantly, Trump’s apparent determination for America to retreat behind a wall of tariffs provides China with the opportunity to further expand its growing economic influence in the world. China’s leadership role in the BRICS group of countries and the Global South is already evident, and its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has developed economic ties with approximately 150 countries. The stated aim of the BRI is to build greater connectivity and stimulate trade and economic growth for all participants, including China, through improving infrastructure and business opportunities worldwide. Contrary to the impression often given in the West, these win-win aims are generally being met, despite cases of some countries overborrowing and becoming heavily indebted to China. Roads, railways, ports and other infrastructure facilities are being transformed across the globe, stimulating economic growth, the expansion of trade and regional integration.
The West’s harshest criticisms of the BRI, portraying it as “economic imperialism”, very much reflect America’s recent anti-China narrative. Had it been an American initiative in the days before the US abandoned free trade, it would doubtless have been lauded as a triumph of American business acumen and a boost to overseas infrastructure development, free trade and internationalism. As it is, the contrast between China’s collaborative, internationalist approach to economic development and Trump’s inward-looking, “America First” stance is stark. Imposing protectionist tariffs, bullying other countries with economic threats, and planning dramatic cuts to the US international aid budget aren’t a great advertisement for the “leader of the free world”.
Trump’s “America First” economic policies will inevitably lead countries to search out less volatile, more stable trading partners. China is ideally poised to fill the vacuum being left by America turning in on itself. Even those countries skeptical about the BRI can be won over by China’s win-win, collaborative approach and its credentials as a trusted trading partner and investor. The result will be a realignment of trading relationships as countries pivot toward China and away from Trump’s “Back To The Future” reincarnation of “America First”.
The author is a British historian and former principal of Sha Tin College, an international secondary school in Hong Kong.
The views do not necessarily reflect those of China Daily.
