Overseas analysts say retaining 5 percent goal reflects realistic approach amid global challenges

China’s determination to keep its economic growth target for this year at around 5 percent, unchanged from the previous year, reflects a realistic and pragmatic approach in the face of external headwinds and internal economic adjustments, global experts said.

They also applauded China’s continued commitment to opening-up, which is expected to strengthen the country’s global economic position amid rising protectionism led by the United States.

“The 2025 GDP growth target was set at around 5 percent with careful consideration to avoid excessive restraint or being perceived as passive while also ensuring feasibility. This reflects an emphasis on balancing stability and progress,” said Satoshi Tomisaka, a professor at the Institute of World Studies at Takushoku University in Tokyo, Japan.

Noriyuki Kawamura, emeritus professor at Nagoya University of Foreign Studies in Japan, said: “The target of around 5 percent GDP growth is considered reasonable, as it balances necessity and feasibility. However, concerns remain that sluggish domestic consumption and tariffs imposed under Trump 2.0 could weigh down GDP.”

In 2024, the Chinese government implemented a trade-in subsidy policy, which yielded positive results, but a new concrete consumption policy is needed to replace it, Kawamura said.

Vigorously boosting consumption is the top priority among the major tasks in 2025 outlined in the Government Work Report, which was delivered by Premier Li Qiang on March 5.

Premier Li’s emphasis on boosting consumption and improving people’s livelihoods as key drivers of economic policy is a strategic shift from investment-led growth to a more sustainable domestic demand-driven model, said Anna Rosario Malindog-Uy, vice-president of Asian Century Philippines Strategic Studies, a Manila-based think tank.

According to China’s National Bureau of Statistics, final consumption expenditure accounted for 44.5 percent of the country’s economic growth in 2024.

“In contrast, consumption contributes over 65 percent to GDP growth in developed economies. A stronger focus on domestic demand will make China’s economy more resilient to external shocks,” said Malindog-Uy, adding that such approach is vital for sustaining economic growth, fostering innovation, and maintaining competitiveness.

In the report, Li emphasized that regardless of changes in the external environment, China should remain steadfast in its commitment to opening-up.

Kawamura, from Nagoya University of Foreign Studies, stressed that further deepening of reform and opening-up is crucial for both China’s economic development and the achievement of Chinese modernization.

“In particular, as the US government advances economic decoupling as part of its containment strategy against China, promoting openness and implementing preferential policies for foreign enterprises will be highly effective. At the same time, these measures could serve as a counterstrategy against the tariff increases imposed under Trump 2.0,” Kawamura said.

Tomisaka, from Takushoku University, noted that China is pursuing stable growth amid external headwinds, such as US President Donald Trump’s tariff measures, by strengthening regional networks and bilateral frameworks.

China’s fiscal and monetary policy is modestly expansionary, continuing the incremental loosening of system liquidity that became evident in the latter part of 2024, said Warwick Powell, adjunct professor at Queensland University of Technology and policy advisor to former Australian prime minister Kevin Rudd.

“We see an emphasis on structural change that aims to continue China’s transition to a high-technology driven industrial economy, with a burgeoning services sector,” said Powell.

Rates of credit expansion in technology and manufacturing are expected to be pivotal in driving structural change and growth. This shift in the allocation of social capital — from property development to technology-driven manufacturing — remains the central focus of reform, Powell explained.

Rasha Al Joundy, a senior researcher at the Dubai Public Policy Research Center in the United Arab Emirates, said the 5-percent growth target for 2025 reflects China’s strategic policy for economic progress while focusing on sustainable development despite global challenges.

She said China faced many changes in the global economic landscape, changes which are only increasing, but dealt with them using adaptability and resilience to achieve 5 percent growth in 2024.

China’s continued commitment to opening-up is expected to strengthen the country’s global economic position amid rising protectionism led by the US, she added.

Chin Yew Sin, president of the Malaysia Strategy Research Center in Kuala Lumpur, said China’s stable growth is “fantastic news, not only for China but also for the global economy as a whole”.

Bolstering domestic demand will enhance the livelihood of people as well, as this is in line with the Chinese government’s policy of “Common Prosperity” for all Chinese people, he said.

As noted by the premier, further opening-up as well as domestic consumption remain keys to economic development, said Oh Ei Sun, a senior fellow at the Singapore Institute of International Affairs.

“The opening up of the internet and service sectors for foreign investment is laudable, and results would need to be quick, or foreign investors will continue to wait and see,” he said.

Xin Xin in Sydney and Cui Haipei in Dubai contributed to this story.

Contact the writers at jiangxueqing@chinadaily.com.cn