In his very readable and insightful book, The Split: Finding the Opportunities in China’s Economy in the New World Order, Shaun Rein wrote: “The world is splitting between US and China. No government, no company, no person is immune to the rising tension between the world’s two superpowers. Countries must choose if they want to get closer to China’s economic orbit or America’s. It is virtually impossible to be neutral and trade closely with both.”
Rein explains that the root cause of this split is the “dizzying growth” of China’s economy over the past two decades, leading the United States to view China as not only an economic but also a political and military threat. He suggests that “a clash between the dominant superpower and the challenger with its different political, cultural, and value system” was perhaps inevitable. Rein is clear, however, that the greater part of the blame for this clash lies with American politicians and agencies like the FBI and CIA, which “fearmonger for votes and increased security budgets”. Too many US officials, he believes, “are hell-bent on turning China into an enemy”. This “self-fulfilling prophesy” is illustrated with quotations from prominent politicians such as Republican Senator Ted Cruz, who said that China is waging a thousand-year war against the US. Not to be outdone in the hyperbole stakes, South Dakota’s then-governor (and current US homeland security secretary) Kristi Noem doubled up, telling Fox News that “China has a 2,000-year plan” to destroy America. Rein goes on to liken extreme US views about China to the zealotry of medieval Crusaders, with democracy replacing religion as the great cause, underscored with a toxic blend of “racism, bigotry and Sinophobia”.
Donald Trump’s policy of heaping tariffs not just on his perceived enemies, but also on America’s traditional allies, will inevitably drive more and more countries into closer ties with China, whom they will see as a more reliable, stable, consistent and trustworthy trading partner
If this analysis was correct when Rein’s book was published in 2024, there is no question that “the split” is now being intensified during Donald Trump’s second presidential term. Despite his avowed respect for China’s President Xi Jinping, the launch of Trump’s tariff wars on April 2, his so-called “Liberation Day”, has substantially raised the stakes, driving a further wedge between the two superpowers.
No one wins in trade wars, but it seems clear that the US is set to be the big loser here. Trump’s policy of heaping tariffs not just on his perceived enemies, but also on America’s traditional allies, will inevitably drive more and more countries into closer ties with China, whom they will see as a more reliable, stable, consistent and trustworthy trading partner. Trump’s combative attitude toward his NATO allies, his territorial ambitions in Canada and Greenland, and his administration’s apparent disdain for Europe have already encouraged Western countries to reassess their relationship with the US. This trend has now been accelerated by “Liberation Day”. The split identified by Rein between China’s supporters in the Global South and America’s supporters in the West is now likely to shift substantially in China’s favor unless Trump rows back on his more extreme economic and political stances.
If this doesn’t happen, China will be the clear beneficiary, while the US will face the real risk of obtaining the unwelcome status of a pariah state. The word “pariah” originally referred to members of a low caste group in southern India, often referred to as “untouchables”. Over time, it came to be used for any person who is despised, shunned or reviled. In international relations, the pejorative term is now used for those states that are reviled because they don’t abide by international rules or agreements, or they refuse to cooperate with international norms of behavior.
The US is very much in danger of meeting these criteria. It has withdrawn from major international organizations and agreements, including the World Health Organization, the United Nations Human Rights Council, and the Paris Climate Agreement. It has dismantled the US Agency for International Development. It has been accused of conducting international relations in a self-serving manner, exclusively in American interests and without due consideration for the legitimate views of other states. Trump’s various pronouncements about Ukraine, Greenland, Canada, Panama and Gaza all add fuel to such accusations. The image of an “America First” president abandoning international commitments and norms of behavior has now been given further credence by the launch of a tariff war that will weaken the rest of the world, including already impoverished countries. The effect will be to reinforce the impression that a disruptive and self-serving US is in danger of becoming a pariah state.
According to Barret Kupelian, chief economist at PwC, Trump’s “Liberation Day” was the “most significant disruption to the international trading system this century”. He warns that “trust in the rules-based global system has been eroded, and businesses can no longer rely on trade being predictable or stable”. Economists have ridiculed the flawed “reciprocal” tariff calculations used by the Trump administration and also the economic illiteracy of attempting to eliminate bilateral trade deficits. Indeed, they point out that running a trade deficit with some countries, often poorer ones, can actually be desirable as it is the only way to secure certain goods that aren’t viable to produce at home. There is no question that the so-called “reciprocal” US tariffs will not only disrupt international trade, but will also result in poorer countries suffering, as well as higher prices at home. According to Michael Gasiorek, director of the UK Trade Policy Observatory at Sussex University, “For all intents and purposes, the US is now a rogue nation when it comes to trade.”
Trump may have been in office for only a few months, but in that short time he has managed to plant the idea that the US is transforming itself from a respected world leader into an international pariah. “Liberation Day” appears to be the culmination of a series of PR blunders that have alienated the US from friends and foes alike. China, as the main beneficiary, has already taken steps to fill the leadership vacuum and cement its status as a stable trading partner. After years of trade quarrels with Japan and South Korea, China has now reached agreement with these countries to speed up talks on a free trade deal. China’s relations with Europe have been similarly strengthened as a direct result of Trump’s policies. The heads of Mercedes and BMW have been invited to a personal meeting with Xi, and the EU trade commissioner, Maros Sefcovic, has already visited Beijing on a mission to strengthen Sino-European trade.
This international pivot from the US to China is set to gather pace as the idea of America as a pariah state gains traction. A new world order is emerging as China’s status as a stable, reliable and trustworthy trading partner is thrown into sharp relief by the contrasting behavior of the US. This is the unintended consequence of Trump’s “America First” policies, his antagonism of Western allies, his unpredictable behavior, his retreat from international commitments, and his hostile, illogical and disruptive “Liberation Day” tariffs.
The author is a British historian and former principal of Sha Tin College, an international secondary school in Hong Kong.
The views do not necessarily reflect those of China Daily.
