Hong Kong’s property sales are expected to surge 33 percent month-on-month to 7,800 deals in November, marking a seven-month high, partly driven by interest rate cuts, according to data from Centaline Property Agency.
The total value of transactions spanning residential, commercial, car parks and industrial units, is expected to jump 61 percent to HK$67 billion ($8.61 billion) from October’s HK$41.66 billion, the data revealed.
“Market sentiment improved in October on multiple positive factors, including rate cuts, mainland support measures, and relaxed mortgage rules unveiled in 2024 Policy Address,” said Yeung Ming-yee, a senior associate director at Centaline.
However, Yeung warned December transactions could slump due to sluggish secondhand property market activities and fewer new project launches.
By Nov 20, total sales reached 60,116 deals worth HK$473.2 billion in the first 11 months, surpassing full-year 2023 figures.
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The real estate agency predicts that total transactions in 2024 will hit 66,500, up 15 percent year-on-year.
New home sales are expected to surge 57 percent month-on-month to 2,500 transactions in November, with total value advancing 80 percent to HK$31 billion.
Developers accelerated project launches and cleared inventory following interest rate cuts, driving the robust sales growth from October’s 1,594 transactions worth HK$17.23 billion.
The first 11 months saw 15,480 new home transactions totaling HK$190.11 billion, exceeding full-year 2023 figures by about 45 percent in both volume and value.
The city’s mortgage costs fell to a two-year low after six major banks, including the city’s note-issuing banks — HSBC, Standard Chartered, and Bank of China (Hong Kong) — cut prime rates following the Hong Kong Monetary Authority’s base rate cut to 5 percent earlier this month, matching the US Federal Reserve’s move.
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However, the rate cuts have yet to stem the home prices decline. Live-in home prices dropped 1.7 percent in September to levels last seen in August 2016, according to data from the Rating and Valuation Department. Prices have fallen 28 percent from their 2021 peak and are down 7.5 percent this year.
The city’s rents rose 5.7 percent in the first 10 months this year, according to the Midland Realty data, fueled by an influx of newcomers, mostly Chinese mainland professionals, under Hong Kong’s talent attraction programs.
The authorities have issued visas to 81,463 skilled professionals under its talent programs as of September, with 66,109 already relocating to the city. The approval rate represents 81 percent of the 100,972 applications received.
Centaline Property Agency’s executive director, Louis Chan Wing-kit, said over 30 percent of rental transactions handled by Centaline Property in the first nine months of 2024 came from Putonghua-speaking tenants.
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Of the 17,000 leases signed through Centaline, about 5,300 tenants had Putonghua names, with monthly rents ranging from HK$4,500 to over HK$300,000, he added.
