In May, the mid-term elections will be held in the Philippines, including for the 24-seat senate. They are a critical test of popularity for President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos, who was elected in 2022. His opponents hope to give him a drubbing.

On March 7, his predecessor, Rodrigo “Digong” Duterte, a political rival and father of Marcos’ estranged vice-president, Sara Zimmerman Duterte, visited Hong Kong with his daughter to campaign among the sizable Filipino community (which warmly welcomed him).

A firebrand (he has been called “Asia’s Trump”), Duterte never dealt in half-measures. Filipinos have either loved or hated him; despite his travails, he retains broad support.

In 2016, when he ran for president, Duterte drew heavily on his crime-busting reputation as mayor of Davao City, where he was dubbed “The Punisher”. He promised voters that if elected, he would ruthlessly clamp down on drug dealers and the narcotics trade. His message resonated, and he handily defeated his main rival, Mar Roxas, by 16,601,997 votes to 9,987,175 votes (39.01 percent to 23.45 percent).

Duterte currently chairs the Philippine Democratic Party (PDP), while Sara chairs the Alliance for Change (HNP), both thorns in Marcos’ flesh.

While in Hong Kong, Duterte, aged 79, said he was not afraid of reports concerning an arrest warrant issued by the International Criminal Court (ICC). The warrant arose out of the “drugs war” deaths that allegedly occurred in two periods when he was the Davao City mayor and the state president (respectively, 2011 to 2016, and 2016 to 2019, the year in which he withdrew the Philippines from the Rome Statute, which established the ICC).

On March 11, when Duterte’s plane arrived in Manila, the prosecutor general, Richard Fadullon, arrested him using the ICC warrant. He was then detained at the nearby Villamor air base while events unfolded.

Duterte’s lawyers petitioned the Supreme Court, asking it to assume jurisdiction over the case and issue a temporary restraining order (thereby keeping him in Manila). However, Marcos had other ideas, and he pre-empted judicial interventions.

The Manila authorities urgently prepared the flight permits to dispatch Duterte to The Hague (the ICC’s Dutch base). Within 12 hours of arriving from Hong Kong, Duterte was on a private jet bound for the Netherlands, where he was incarcerated in the ICC’s detention facility. Outraged supporters quickly gathered outside the building, with one, Janet Suliman, telling Reuters that Marcos had “handed our president to foreigners”, and “brought shame to our (country)”, a common enough sentiment.

Closer to home, Marcos’ sister, Imee, a senator, commiserated with “poor President Duterte,” saying she “cannot accept” his treatment. On March 17, the senate announced a probe into the affair, which bodes ill for Marcos.

According to the Social Weather Stations (SWS), the Philippines’ main public-opinion polling body, Duterte, by the end of his presidential term (2022), received his highest SWS approval rating (presidents are constitutionally limited to single six-year terms, a limitation Marcos is rumored to be trying to change). He effectively became the Philippines’ most popular post-EDSA president to date (the EDSA Revolution in 1986 brought an end to the 21-year presidency of Marcos’ father, Ferdinand E Marcos).

When quizzed about the unseemly haste with which his predecessor was bundled off to The Hague, Marcos played the international card. He said, “Interpol asked for help and we obliged because we have commitments to Interpol which we have to fulfil.” However, he failed to explain why he prevented the Supreme Court from adjudicating upon the legality of Duterte’s detention, or why the alleged crimes were not being tried in the Philippines.

Indeed, the Rome Statute could not be more precise on this point. Although the ICC’s mandate is to try war crimes, cases of genocide, crimes against humanity (under which Duterte is charged), and the crime of aggression (Art.5), it is a court of last resort. It only acts when a state is either “unable” or “unwilling” to prosecute crimes over which it has jurisdiction.

The Philippines has a functioning judiciary, fully capable of trying Duterte. The only reason, therefore, for the ICC stepping in was that Marcos was unwilling to allow the trial to proceed. He presumably feared it might result in an acquittal and cause him political damage. By hiding behind the ICC’s skirt and letting it take the flak, he imagined he could escape censure, a gamble he may yet regret.

With Duterte in The Hague (if past trials are anything to go by, his trial may run for years), Marcos has neutralized his adversary, who cannot help his senate candidates in the mid-term elections. With him gone, Marcos also hopes to eliminate his daughter, Sara Duterte.

Although Marcos and Sara were jointly elected to their respective positions on a “dream ticket” in 2022, relations soon soured. A key factor was Marcos’ decision to allow the United States to open four new military bases (making nine altogether), which recalled his father’s era (he was known as “America’s boy”). The US propped up his father’s dictatorship for as long as possible (only abandoning him when the populace revolted).

When provincial governors expressed concerns about hosting US military facilities that could endanger their areas, Marcos claimed, “It will actually be good for their provinces.” Although he said an “emerging threat” required “adjustments in our strategy”, nobody was fooled. Sara Duterte knew precisely what he was up to, and opposed a return to the old days, when Uncle Sam called the shots and the Philippines was basically a US vassal.

The other bone of contention concerned the South China Sea. Like her father, Sara Duterte wanted better relations with Beijing and disapproved of Marcos’s instruction to the Philippines’ navy to confront Chinese vessels. She described his handling of the situation as a “fiasco”, which he deeply resented, like her other criticisms.  

On Feb 4, therefore, the House of Representatives, instigated by Marcos loyalists (his cousin, Martin Romualdez, is house speaker), impeached Sara Duterte. As the Guardian explained, she had “repeatedly accused Marcos, his wife and cousin, house speaker, Martin Romualdez, of corruption, weak leadership and attempting to muzzle her because of speculation she may seek the presidency in 2028 after Marcos’ six-year term ends” (Feb 6). Intriguingly, these accusations were of a type often leveled against Marcos’ father in the 1980s (he was also accused of responsibility for the assassination of his rival, Benigno Aquino, at Manila airport, in 1983).

If Sara Duterte is successfully impeached, she will be barred from seeking the presidency in 2028, and her political career will effectively be over. 

In the articles of impeachment, she is accused of failing to “strongly” denounce China’s “aggressive” activities against Filipino forces in the South China Sea. In other words, her hopes of managing maritime tensions sensibly are being held against her, and Marcos’ agenda is clear.

However, the impeachment could backfire badly on him. On March 14, Pulse Asia released its latest impeachment survey, based on polling conducted from Feb 20-26. It showed that at least 45 percent of the electorate was against the impeachment, while only 26 percent approved it (the remainder were undecided).

Throughout his presidency, Rodrigo Duterte prioritized closer ties with China. In October 2016, he visited Beijing on a trip that President Xi Jinping called a “milestone”. He wanted to boost trade and mend ties, and several trade deals amounting to $13.5 billion were signed, together with cultural, tourism, narcotics, and maritime agreements. Xi said, “I hope we can follow the wishes of the people and use this visit as an opportunity to push China-Philippines relations back on a friendly footing and fully improve things.”

Given Duterte’s unstinting efforts to improve Sino-Philippine relations, it would be surprising if Beijing were not concerned over his situation. On March 11, the Chinese foreign ministry’s spokesperson, Mao Ning, said the ICC should be prudent in exercising its functions and not follow “double standards”. She reiterated “China’s consistent view that the ICC should strictly follow the principle of complementarity, exercise its functions prudently in accordance with the law and prevent politicization or double standards.”

As Duterte prepares his defense, he can at least be assured of a fair trial. The ICC prosecutor, Karim Khan KC, is an experienced prosecutor of great integrity, and Duterte will be tried by impartial judges. Khan has emphasized that Duterte will only be convicted if his guilt is proved beyond a reasonable doubt, and he will enjoy the customary fair trial guarantees.

However, Duterte is frail and will turn 80 on March 28. His trial and any appeal could take several years. Even if acquitted, he will be out of circulation for ages, and may never see his homeland again.  

If convicted, Duterte’s sentence will be severe, and he may have to serve it in Europe. For example, the former Liberian president, Charles Taylor, who was convicted of war crimes by the ICC in 2012, is now serving his sentence of 50 years imprisonment at a prison in County Durham, England.

There will be many Filipinos who can never forgive Marcos for subjecting their former president to this ordeal. Duterte’s son, Paolo, called his father’s treatment “a clear act of political persecution”, a view that could resonate with electors in May. Irrespective of the merits of the prosecution, Marcos may face the fury of those who deplore his abdication of responsibility in passing the case to the ICC, when it could and should have been processed in the Philippines.

From his cell in The Hague, Duterte, through Sara, sent a message to the Filipino people.  He said “Please tell them just relax, everything comes to an end. There will be a day of reckoning for all.” If Marcos imagines his shenanigans are paying off, he may have a rude awakening.

Even if Sara Duterte is successfully impeached, her family has other standard bearers. One brother, Paolo, represents Davao’s 1st district in the House of Representatives, and another, Sebastian, is the mayor of Davao City. Her sister, Veronica (Kitty), is a gutsy 20-year-old and rising star (she has vowed to defend her father, assuring him, “I’m your daughter, I’m your blood”). Unless Marcos has plans for them also, the Duterte clan is far from finished.

Although Marcos is popular enough in the West (apart from the US, he has also been cultivating military ties with NATO countries like France, the Netherlands, and the United Kingdom), it is a different story at home. On Feb 26, the public opinion research firm WR Numero released its 2025 Philippine Public Opinion Monitor. Only 30.1 percent of Filipinos considered Marcos’ performance satisfactory as of February 2025, a steep 15 percentage point drop from the 45 percent recorded in September 2024.

If Marcos believes that hounding the Duterte family will revive his fortunes, then good luck to him.

At one time, Marcos’ father also imagined he was impregnable. He kowtowed to the US, brooked no dissent, and disposed of opponents by fair means or foul. However, not even his American puppet masters could save him once his people sickened of him in 1986. His son needs to understand that the way to beat opponents is not through political chicanery or heavy-handedness but by having better policies.

If, moreover, Marcos pursues regional stability, stops pandering to NATO’s warmongers, and upholds his country’s dignity, he may still be able to salvage whatever is left of his presidency.

The author is a senior counsel and law professor, and was previously the director of public prosecutions of the Hong Kong SAR.

The views do not necessarily reflect those of China Daily.