China’s consumer spending could be gaining momentum, thanks to Beijing’s latest policies — like the consumption boosting action plan unveiled recently following the two sessions, held in early March. With measures aimed at lifting incomes, expanding domestic demand, and tackling deflationary pressures, China is setting the stage for a stronger consumer base. This push might bring some quiet yet meaningful effects to the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, reflecting the deep ties within China’s grand economic vision. As Beijing drives this initiative, Hong Kong could see a few steady gains take shape.

Retail and tourism might feel a gentle nudge forward. Chinese mainland visitors have long been a cornerstone for Hong Kong — in 2018, or before the COVID-19 pandemic hit, the Hong Kong Tourism Board recorded 51 million visitor arrivals from the mainland, accounting for 78 percent of all visitors (65 million). By 2024, that number rebounded to around 34 million, or 76 percent of the total (44.5 million), after falling steeply in the 2020-22 period. Beijing’s plan to boost household spending could mean more mainland visitors with a bit of extra cash to splash, potentially heading to Causeway Bay or Tsim Sha Tsui for luxury goods or tech products. Hotels might see a modest uptick in bookings, and eateries could serve up a few more dishes. If these policies keep fueling mainland residents’ wallets, visitor numbers are very likely to increase, giving the SAR’s economy a subtle boost.

Trade could pick up a bit too. Beijing’s focus on consumption — part of its eight-point action plan — might lift demand for imported goods, and Hong Kong’s ports, a trusted gateway for the mainland, could see an increase in activities. With no tariffs and top-notch logistics, the SAR’s ready to roll. The Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area development, a national project, ties Hong Kong to partner cities like Shenzhen and Guangzhou. This consumer push might mean more cargo moving through those docks, supporting a mainland energized by policy.

Financially, Hong Kong could find a small edge. If Beijing’s measures spark more mainland spending, a few extra firms — think retail or tech players — might list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. Bankers in Central could handle new accounts from across the border, reinforcing Hong Kong’s financial hub status. It’s a low-key gain, linked to Beijing’s steady hand, keeping the SAR in the mix.

Beijing’s consumer boost is real and rolling out now, and its impact on Hong Kong could be a practical benefit — the mainland advancing, with the SAR keeping pace. The SAR has the markets, the ports, and the know-how to make it work, even if it’s not a loud win. The number of mainland visitors that peaked at 51 million in 2018 showed the potential; 2023 and 2024 marked a strong recovery in the numbers of mainland visitors. If Beijing’s policies stick, they might lift the number a bit more, though it’s still too early to tell.

The Greater Bay Area framework, shaped by Beijing, blends Hong Kong’s strengths with the mainland’s progress. A few more shoppers could browse stores, a bit more trade could flow, a little more business could land — small steps adding up. This isn’t a blockbuster shift — it’s about quiet growth, with Hong Kong aligning with Beijing’s consumption stimulus policy. If this plays out, the SAR might see a manageable upswing, tied to the mainland’s policy drive, showing that when Beijing sets the course, Hong Kong can sail along too, in its own way.

The author is a Swiss-based financial consultant and geopolitical analyst. He holds an Executive MBA from Fudan University in Shanghai.

The views do not necessarily reflect those of China Daily.