Donald Trump defeated Kamala Harris and is expected to take office as the 47th US president on Jan 20, 2025. He will become the second president after Grover Cleveland in 1892 to serve non-consecutive terms. Additionally, at 78 Trump will be the oldest president at inauguration. This election is also notable for being the first time since 2004 that a Republican presidential candidate has won both the electoral college and the popular vote. Some believe that Trump’s victory is not due to his strengths but rather a rejection of the elite liberal image that led American voters to support the populist Trump, subsequently benefiting the Republican Party.

Aside from populism, Trump’s campaign also highlighted a business “cost-effectiveness” approach to foreign policy, including his China policy. Combining the policies from Trump’s first term (2016-2020) and his campaign rhetoric, we can infer his potential China policy during his second term.

Trump’s 2016 election marked a new phase in US trade policy toward China. The Trump administration pursued an “America First” economic strategy, accusing China of benefiting from “unfair” trade practices. Against this backdrop, in 2018, the Trump administration initiated a series of trade sanctions against China, including imposing high tariffs on Chinese imports worth hundreds of billions of dollars. These actions led to an unprecedented trade war, significantly affecting the economies of both countries and the global economy and supply chain. Trump threatened during his campaign to impose a 60 percent tariff on Chinese goods and even suggested raising tariffs to 200 percent if military conflict erupted over the Taiwan Strait. If implemented, these measures would exacerbate US inflation, as Chinese exporters would have to pass on most, if not all, of the additional tariffs to American consumers.

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In the realms of diplomacy and military, the then Trump administration adopted a confrontational stance toward China. On the Taiwan question, the Trump administration strengthened arms sales to the island, took several unprecedented steps to deepen its relations with Taiwan, and under Trump’s direction, the US Navy sailed through the Taiwan Strait 13 times in 2020. On the South China Sea issue, the US intensified its challenges to China, including increasing naval patrols under the guise of “freedom of navigation” to curb China’s legitimate rights in the region.

During his campaign this time, Trump criticized Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co for “stealing” the US semiconductor industry and suggested that Taiwan should pay higher costs for US “protection”, reflecting his business-oriented “cost-effectiveness” approach in dealing with the island, which is likely to disconcert its separatist forces.

Unlike the Biden administration, Trump is unlikely to take ideological actions that sacrifice American people’s interests and rashly meddle in China’s internal affairs.

Technological competition was another critical aspect of the US-China rivalry during Trump’s first term. The Trump administration blacklisted several Chinese high-tech companies, including Huawei and Shanghai-based Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp, accusing them of threatening US national security and prohibiting American firms from selling advanced chips and other key technologies to them. This technological blockade aimed to hinder the development of China’s tech industry. However, it also spurred increased investment and innovation capabilities within China’s tech sector. It is anticipated that over the next four years, Trump will seek to implement his campaign motto — Make America Great Again — by intensifying restrictions on China’s technology, which may further accelerate China’s domestic technological advancements.

After Trump’s election in 2016, US policy toward China became more diversified and complex, significantly affecting international governance and multilateral cooperation. The Trump administration frequently withdrew from multilateral agreements such as the Paris Agreement and the Trans-Pacific Partnership, which made other countries around the world look up to China more. Consequently, China has had more opportunities to play a leading role on the international arena.

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For instance, China has made significant progress in promoting the Belt and Road Initiative, enhanced dialogue among BRICS countries, strengthened economic ties with countries across Asia, Europe, Africa and the Global South, and committed to creating a more open and inclusive international economic system. These activities have contributed to enhancing China’s international influence and status.

Trump’s re-election will bring comprehensive changes to US-China relations, spanning trade friction, tech competition, geopolitics and international governance. For China, this presents both challenges and opportunities. In navigating the evolving US-China relationship, China needs to uphold its sovereignty, security and development interests while actively promoting constructive cooperation with countries worldwide, particularly developing nations. Simultaneously, China is expected to significantly enhance its technological innovation capacity, accelerate economic restructuring and upgrading, and boost international competitiveness in the new international landscape, thereby achieving long-term development.

The author is a former information coordinator of the HKSAR government and a member of the Chinese Association of Hong Kong & Macao Studies.

The views do not necessarily reflect those of China Daily.