A general view of residential buildings in West Kowloon District, Hong Kong on April 11, 2023. (ANDY CHONG / CHINA DAILY)
The University of Hong Kong on Thursday released its forecast for the macro economy of Hong Kong, predicting a 6.2 percent year-on-year growth in the city’s gross domestic product (GDP) in the fourth quarter, buoyed by the increase in visitor arrivals and improved local spending.
The university predicted 3.8 percent economic growth for the whole year, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous forecast, given the worse-than-expected GDP growth in the second quarter.
The government’s latest data showed that the city’s unemployment rate stood at 2.8 percent in the period from June to August, similar to the preceding three-month period
According to the report, the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region government’s implementation of an array of economic stimulus measures has had a positive impact on the city’s tourism industry, which led to an improvement in local consumption sentiment.
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The government’s latest data showed that the city’s unemployment rate stood at 2.8 percent in the period from June to August, similar to the preceding three-month period.
Stating “the job market has rebounded to pre-pandemic levels of full employment”, the university predicted the jobless rate would drop further to 2.7 percent in the fourth quarter, a 25-year low.
The university forecast that the Hong Kong economy will expand by 4.7 percent in the third quarter, lower than its previous forecast of 5.4 percent.
The report, published on a quarterly basis since 1999, is based on research conducted by the APEC Studies Program of the Hong Kong Institute of Economics and Business Strategy at the HKU Business School.
READ MORE: HKU: HK's economic growth to accelerate to 2.8% in Q2
In August, the government announced that the economy grew by 1.5 percent year-on-year in the second quarter, marking a decline compared to the 2.9 percent growth observed in the first quarter.
It revised its GDP forecast for the whole year from a range of 3.5 to 5.5 percent to a range of 4 percent to 5 percent, with the challenging global economic environment and weak external demand expected to continue exerting pressure on the city’s exports of goods.
According to the HKU’s forecast, Hong Kong’s exports are expected to drop by 11.7 percent for the whole year.
