Despite uncertainties in the global economy that could raise pressure on Hong Kong and the Chinese mainland, industry insiders at a seminar hosted by the Hong Kong Export Credit Insurance Corporation said on Wednesday that the impact of these uncertainties on the city’s exports is not as significant as it may seem, and urged exporters to identify positive factors amid challenges.

Irina Fan, research director of the Hong Kong Trade Development Council (HKTDC), said “the export business is still doing well” and that there’s no need to lose sleep over the possibility of increased tariffs.

“Despite the decrease in exports to the United States, (exports) to other markets are picking up,” Fan said. Data from the HKTDC showed that the city’s total exports rose an estimated 18 percent in 2024 compared with 2017, although exports to the US fell 7 percent. Exports to emerging markets have seen notable growth — up 40 percent to Mexico and 38 percent to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN).

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A similar situation was seen on the mainland. According to the World Bank, China’s share of global exports climbed from 12.7 percent in 2018 to 14.1 percent in 2023, despite US tariffs being placed on about two-thirds of Chinese exports to the US since 2018.

The uncertainties over trade tensions are weighing more on exporter sentiment than on actual sales, Fan said.

The HKTDC conducted a survey in December when concerns grew about potential tariff hikes from the new US administration of incoming president Donald Trump. Most exporters who were interviewed said that “recent trade tensions and tariffs on mainland-origin goods are yet to affect their businesses”.

Hong Kong’s exports are anticipated to grow 4 percent year-on-year for 2025. Although this is lower than the estimated 9 percent growth for 2024, it is higher than the average growth rate of 3 percent over the past decade, Fan said. Given that this growth is based on a relatively high base, a 4 percent increase is not bad, she added.

According to the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region government, in the first 11 months of 2024, the value of Hong Kong’s goods exports increased 9.1 percent over the same period in 2023.

“This indicates that the city’s exports are recovering steadily and there’s a rebound in the demand from major markets,” said Dennis Ng Wang-pun, chairman of the advisory board at the Hong Kong Export Credit Insurance Corporation.

Thomas Shik, head of economic research of global markets at Hang Seng Bank, agrees. He said he believes Hong Kong’s economy could benefit from US interest rate cuts and stabilization of the mainland economy.

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The US Federal Reserve has cut interest rates three times since last September with a total reduction of 100 basis points. Shik said he expects the Fed to make three or four more cuts this year, each by 25 basis points.

Shik said the Chinese mainland’s exports remain competitive despite the complex global environment. The development of high-tech industries on the mainland, such as solar energy cells and new energy vehicles (NEV), has injected vitality into the economy and could serve as a buffer against the effects of potential tariffs on exports, he added.

In addition, Beijing has rolled out a package of measures to stabilize the real estate market and support the stock market. Shik said these are positive factors and he expects the mainland’s economic performance in 2025 to be similar to last year’s.

Contact the writer at irisli@chinadailyhk.com